Successive restrictions, an epidemic that continues to rage, a lack of social contacts, the loss of a loved one … More and more French people are feeling weariness in the face of Covid-19. The Institut Pasteur evokes a possible ” back to normal »Free of restrictions, in the fall of 2021, but under certain conditions.
“Resume a normal life”
No surprise effect, it is the vaccination that will make it possible to get out of this health crisis. Yes, but in what way? The private foundation used mathematical models to assess the impact of vaccination on the coronavirus epidemic. The purpose of these models is to project into the longer term and to determine which vaccination coverage is most likely to stem the epidemic. Moreover, it is on these calculations that recommendations were sent to the Haute Autorité de Santé, but also to the Scientific Council, to establish the order of priority audiences. According to recent data, the risk of infection with the coronavirus is reduced by 80% thanks to vaccines. According to the Institut Pasteur, it is necessary to vaccinate younger people, because even if they are less likely to develop serious forms of the disease, this would reduce the circulation of the virus and therefore protect “ indirectly the most fragile “. In addition, the Institut Pasteur indicates in its press release that “ fall 2021, our ability to relax control measures will depend on the vaccination coverage achieved in the different age groups “. It will also depend on the transmissibility of the English variant, mainly present in France.
Vaccinate only the adult population?
It is clear that only the vaccination of vulnerable people is very insufficient, as well as ” to keep the number of Covid-19 patient admissions below 1,000 per day “. To regain the life of before, without restrictive measures, it is therefore necessary to vaccinate massively and quickly, a strategy normally planned by the government. In the scenario where the variant is more transmissible, vaccination of the elderly is not sufficient either. In fact, the vaccination of 90% of people over 65 years old and 70% of 18-64 year olds does not “ would not allow a total relaxation of control measures “.
According to the foundation, to consider lifting all measures taken to curb the coronavirus epidemic, “ more than 90% of adults should be vaccinated “. This is not all, since a “ significant epidemic is still expected in children, contributing to the infection of parents and unprotected grandparents “. Therefore, according to scientists, it would then become necessary that “ 60-69% of 0-64 year olds and (only) 90% of over 65s Are immune to Covid-19. Upstream, it must be proven that vaccines are safe and effective in children.
