A peak in hospital admissions, caused by the Omicron variant, could take place “at the end of January-during February”. This hypothesis has been put forward by the Institut Pasteur in new models.
- Between December 27 and January 2, 74% of the tests screened showed a profile compatible with the Omicron variant.
- The peak of contaminations would be expected in mid-January and that of hospitalizations could take place “at the end of January-during February”.
In France, contamination continues to increase due to the Omicron variant, which is actively circulating in the territory. According to the epidemiological point of Public Health France published on January 6, “The number of new hospitalizations increased while critical care admissions remained stable”. The data showed that as of January 4, 20,252 patients were admitted to hospital with Covid-19 infection, including 3,678 in critical care. A question then arises: will the hospital peak soon be reached in France? The Pasteur Institute answered this question in new epidemiological projections finalized on January 7 and published on January 12.
A hospital peak “at the end of January-during February”
Foundation researchers have unveiled scenarios, built from mathematical models, for the hospital peak. “In all scenarios, the peak of hospital admissions is expected in the second half of January, with a maximum impact on bed occupancy in late January-current February. The peak of infections is expected in mid-January”, they wrote in the study.
According to the scientists, the most likely scenario is that the Omicron variant is characterized by high transmissibility but low severity, namely a 77% reduction in the probability of hospitalization when infected compared to Delta. In this case, the peak of hospitalizations could reach 5,200 hospital admissions per day.
“With a 10% reduction in transmission rates from January 3, the need for hospital beds could increase from 23,000 beds for an average length of stay of 6 days for patients with the Omicron variant to 18,000 and 15,000 beds. if we managed to reduce this duration to 4 and 3 days, respectively”. This scenario was imagined by the researchers “under optimistic assumptions about vaccine efficacy”.
According to the worst-case scenario, where the hypotheses concerning vaccine effectiveness are pessimistic, 43,000, 32,000 and 22,000 hospital beds and 7,800, 6,000 and 4,400 critical care beds would be needed at the peak.
Incomplete data and uncertain assumptions
The scientists clarified that the scenarios were made on the basis of incomplete data and uncertain assumptions. “Changes in assumptions regarding the transmission and severity of Omicron may materially impact projections”, they reported. The researchers added that if the assumptions made do not materialize, the observed dynamics could be different from the scenarios.
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