After the announcement of the good Social Security accounts, the minister predicted a return to balance in 2017. A very optimistic vision, which observers doubt.
“In 2017, the ‘security hole’ will have disappeared”. In an interview with Echoes, the Minister of Health has displayed a rather unusual enthusiasm when it comes to discussing the Social Security deficit. Intoxicated by the good results noted earlier this week by the Court of Auditors, Marisol Touraine announced the return in 2017 to the balance of the finances of the Health Insurance, which nevertheless acts as a “sick man” of the Social Security, to use the formula of the instance.
The Court of Auditors has indeed issued a positive report on the Social Security accounts. In 2015, its deficit fell from 12.8 billion euros to 10.2 billion euros, ie a “slight decline” of the social debt recorded at 2.1 billion euros. An unprecedented situation since 2001.
To celebrate the event, the government pulled out its calculator. In 2011, the Social Security deficit amounted to a deficit of 17.4 billion. Next year, to near 400 million euros, the general scheme will regain balance, announced Marisol Touraine, who is therefore ahead of the forecasts of the Court of Auditors, which recommends a return to balance for 2020.
Election announcement?
For their part, observers are skeptical. “During an election period, it is fashionable to make this kind of announcement, but the reality is that the health sector remains significantly in deficit,” recalls Claude Lepen, health economist. In 2017, the new measures which have just been adopted will widen this deficit and will find it difficult to be covered by revenue ”.
In fact, the health sector has recorded a continuous deficit for 25 years, estimated at 5.8 billion euros in 2015 (against 6.5 billion in 2014). However, Marisol Touraine has granted an envelope of one billion euros to the hospital and upgraded the basic medical consultation by 2 euros, increasing it to 25 euros. So many elements that will “load the boat” with health costs.
“Because of these new measures, we were rather on the idea that in 2017, the deficit would be a little higher; we are therefore quite surprised by the Minister’s announcement, ”euphemistically Claude Lepen. On the revenue side, entries should also be limited.
Claude Lepen, health economist: ” There are efforts being made, but they could be more important. We have dozens of health insurance funds and we wonder why they exist.“
“We will have saved the Sécu”
“It is true that the salary base is increasing significantly in France. We are on a slope of 2.4% increase, with 1% more employees and an increase in the average salary of around 1.4% ”. But not enough to generate surpluses such that they would cancel the debt, according to the economist.
“We will have saved the Security”, despite everything congratulated the minister, in a tone a bit messianic. A few months before the presidential election, Marisol Touraine thus wished to salute the work of the left in terms of deficit reduction. However, if it is certain that under the current mandate, the budgets were controlled, it is nevertheless advisable to qualify the judgment on this policy “of left”.
No structural reform has been carried out to reduce deficits; the action carried out during these five years was based on limiting expenditure, in particular on drugs and the hospital post. In addition, the accounts benefited from the pension reforms initiated in 2010.
“The plans made by this government are similar to those before,” said Claude Lepen. There have been a certain number of reimbursements, the premiums for complementary health insurance have increased … Can we really speak of leftist politics? The reality is a little more complex. “
Claude Lepen, health economist: ” Doctors and hospital workers complain of a deterioration in their situation. There is a contradiction between the overall macroeconomic level and the experience on the ground. “
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