Swine flu, real danger or hype?

Minister Klink ordered 34 million vaccines to be able to vaccinate everyone in the Netherlands. But is it wise to get vaccinated if the flu breaks out in full force? You don’t get over it by yourself. And who are most at risk?

Ab Osterhaus, virologist: “I would absolutely have myself and my family vaccinated.”
“On June 11, phase 6 entered, so there is no question that we have a pandemic. But that says nothing about the seriousness of the disease. At first it seemed that the disease had a serious course and the flu was already being compared with the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed some 50 million people. At the moment, the situation is more like that of a ‘normal’ winter flu. People may not realize it, but that common flu kills a quarter to a half every year worldwide. half a million people. That is more than from traffic accidents. And with a flu shot, risk groups such as the over 60s and people with chronic diseases can arm themselves against this.”

“The difference with this Mexican, or new variant H1N1 as the virus is now called, is that, in addition to people from the risk groups, it is younger people who get this flu. We cannot predict what will happen, but I think there are three scenarios. : 1. The virus dies out 2. It becomes a mild flu, with 20 to 30 percent of the world population sick with a few million deaths worldwide, just like the last two pandemics in 1957 and 1968 and 3. The virus goes mutate and become as dangerous as the Spanish flu.”

“Of course all intermediate scenarios are also possible. That is why I advised the Health Council to take the worst scenario into account and to have vaccines in place if necessary. Compare it to raising the dikes or insuring your house against fire. is also preventive and you hope you never have to deal with it.”

“About side effects: There are thousands of people who have tested the vaccines and only mild and short-term side effects were seen. Of course, it is possible that many millions of people will have an incidental side effect from vaccination, but the risk of the flu may be greater than that side effect. Should the pandemic strike here in a serious form, I will absolutely have myself and my family members vaccinated.”

“It is taken into account that we will have to deal with a large flu wave after the summer, because in the autumn and winter people gather more and schools have started again. This increases the chance of spreading via droplet infections such as sneezing and coughing. “Recently it turned out that the virus can spread through the air and that also significantly increases the chance of infection. Because it is now winter in the southern hemisphere, we are keeping a close eye on developments there.”

“My advice from my field as a virologist is that we must now prepare ourselves to be able to pull out all the stops. If we don’t do that, and things go wrong, many more people will get sick and more people may die than necessary. And that while you are protected for about 20 euros per person, so that’s why we buy those vaccines, in the hope that we don’t need them, because that also means that in countries that cannot buy the vaccines now, there are no problems will arise.”

Roel Coutinho, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Control at RIVM: “We must be prepared to face a serious situation.”
“The reports about the Mexican flu are certainly not hype. We had better prepare for a serious form to prevent that there will be not only many sick people, but also many more deaths than necessary. And even with a mild disease. We are already in trouble. If, as is expected, 30 to 35 percent of people get the virus and become ill, the continuity in our society is at risk, especially because this virus affects young people who are fully active. H1N1 flu is already more serious than the normal flu, in which the sick and the elderly are especially at risk.”

“It is therefore very sensible that our Minister of Health ordered preventive vaccines in order to intervene in time in the event of a serious outbreak. We better have it so that we are not faced with surprises. It is not yet We will make that decision when we actually have to vaccinate. The entire logistics surrounding it is already being prepared, because it is not a small thing to have to vaccinate all residents of the Netherlands twice .”

“At the moment the vaccine is not yet available, that will be October of this year at the earliest. We hope that will be in time when the ‘big wave’ comes. In any case, there is not much you can do to prevent it. Using Tamiflu as a preventive measure makes no sense at all, because it has quite a few side effects and you can only take it for a limited number of weeks.Tamiflu only makes sense if you have the Mexican flu, and certainly if the disease is serious or if you have a have a higher risk of a more severe course.”

“We do not expect the vaccine to have serious side effects, but you can never rule out the possibility that this will happen in very rare cases. It is a persistent misconception that you get sick from flu vaccinations and that it is no guarantee that you will not get the flu. Protection against the normal flu is indeed not 100 percent, but it is certain that – if you belong to a risk group – you prevent serious complications with vaccination. get the flu shot. I do it myself.”

Huub Schellekens, professor of pharmaceutical biotechnology at Utrecht University: “There are only social reasons to vaccinate against swine flu.”
“I got into the discussion about the Mexican flu, because I couldn’t resist writing something about it from my field. About the hype that the flu is now. Just look at how it went with SARS and bird flu. sometimes CNN infections: there is a huge tendency of the media to blow things up. Take the image of Mexican people kissing each other with masks. Those images stick.”

“In addition, I certainly do not agree with the virologists who predicted a terrible pandemic. Look, it is not such an art to predict a pandemic and yes, we have that pandemic. But you should not make things bigger than they are. “You can apply a biological logic to the development of viruses: epidemics become less and less bad because viruses weaken themselves. The mutations do not select themselves for mortality, but target as many infections as possible. Then you don’t want your host dead.”

“Obviously you can never rule out anything, but it is quite possible to make predictions based on past data and combine that with common sense. Figures available now are not hard enough. At the moment we are seeing a decline in the number of serious infections. If there is a major flu wave, it will be in the autumn or the following winter. There are always more flu cases in these seasons.”

“More people may become ill than normal due to the Mexican flu. Especially because this virus also affects people outside the risk group, the people with underlying suffering. And that can become a problem for the risk group, which is already extra susceptible. group, the flu can be risky, because they are already extra susceptible and are not 100% protected with vaccination.”

“If it becomes clear that the number of deaths in that specific risk group will double, that is the only reason to vaccinate the entire Dutch population. That is the only way to prevent those risk groups from being infected. Vaccination for social reasons. does it for someone else, and that should be the only correct message from Minister Klink.And believe me, when everyone has themselves vaccinated for those social reasons, then there will probably be whole discussions again when someone gets a pimple from it .”

“But as I see it now, vaccinations are not necessary. If you are normally healthy and get the flu, you don’t have to stuff yourself with Tamiflu. That drug is worse than the disease, and we should only use it in serious cases. Take just an aspirin and a brandy and after seven days you’re back on Jan. Again, just use common sense.”