The omikron variant of the coronavirus is spreading rapidly. The latest figures from the RIVM report almost a quarter of a million positive corona tests in a week. With all the worries and insecurities, you would almost lose heart. But there is also reason for some optimism, because fortunately there are also many bright spots.
1 Omikron makes less sick than delta
The omikron virus is really less pathogenic than the delta virus. The infection is more in the upper respiratory tract and less in the lower respiratory tract, explains the Belgian virologist Marc Van Ranst to the NOS. For Belgium, that is the reason to apply less strict rules than the Netherlands.
2 In England the peak is over
The number of new infections in England is decreasing, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said. From 170,000 infections per week, there are now only 90,000 infections. There are also few hospital admissions, although that number is still rising.
3 There are relatively few infections among people over 60
The latest figures from RIVM show a remarkable trend: from the age of 60, the number of infections is small, compared to the younger groups. To give a figure, in the second week of this year, 207 people in their 70s tested positive, compared to 2,909 people aged 18 to 24 (both per 100,000 inhabitants). It is a positive development that the elderly test less positively, because corona more often causes serious illness in the elderly.
4 There are relatively few hospital admissions
Because omikron goes around less among people over 60 and because this corona variant is less sickening, there are relatively few hospital admissions. So we have sky-high infection rates, but still room in the hospital. In fact, the number of hospital admissions and IC admissions due to corona has been falling for a few weeks. However, RIVM expects hospital admissions to increase again in the near future. Especially if more elderly people become infected, there will be more hospital admissions because of corona.
5 The vaccines and boosters are very effective against severe covid
RIVM published the figures on January 19. If you have been vaccinated and boosted, you run 33 times less risk of hospitalization due to corona than someone who has not been vaccinated. And 5 times less than someone who has only been vaccinated but not boosted. The RIVM writes: ‘Between November 19, 2021 and January 13, 2022, the vaccine effectiveness for people with a booster vaccination was 97% against hospital admissions and 98% against ICU admissions.’
Please note: this mainly concerns protection against the delta variant of the virus. Because figures on the omikron variant are not yet available.
We know that the vaccines protect less well against the omikron variant than against the delta variant. But also that the booster considerably boosts the protection of the vaccines. An English analysis comes with a first digit. The protection against omikron with a normal vaccination from at least six months ago is 44 percent. With the booster, that becomes 92 percent.
6 Boosting is now well underway
The boosters therefore help against omikron. Good news is therefore that the booster campaign is getting off to a good start after a slow start. The GGD has until January 16th to 6.7 million people given a booster shot. In addition, GPs, institutions and hospitals have given more than 800,000 boosters. It is estimated that 53 percent of over 18s have now received a booster. There are reports that especially the over 60s have had themselves boosted and that younger people have not yet had this done. RIVM will show figures on this next week.
7 It seems we have enough IC beds
Even though hospital admissions and IC admissions are still falling at the time of writing, a new peak is on the way, according to scientists. The discussion now is: how high should that peak be? Because: the more relaxations, the more people get sick (simultaneously) and the higher the peak in hospital occupancy. The easing of January 15 would cause too high a peak, RIVM feared in a scenario of January 13. We would need more than 1500 IC beds, and there aren’t any. But that was an estimate. The measurements with real figures show that it is not that bad, according to this RIVM chart at the NOS. But we won’t know until the beginning of March how it will really go.
8 Work is underway on an omikron vaccine
Minister Ernst Kuipers wrote it in response to parliamentary questions: A vaccine against omikron is being worked on. This will be ready in April at the earliest. But there can always be new variants, emphasizes Jaap van Dissel in the technical briefing to the House of Representatives on 20 January.
Knowing more?
A listening tip: this podcast from NRC in the series ‘Hairy monkeys’ takes a closer look at the state of affairs regarding the omikron variant and the research into it. For example, about how omikron makes people less sick. Here you can find the podcast.
