The difference in situation between Great Britain and Russia, where the Delta variant is dominant, marks the importance of vaccination. The first country, which has vaccinated two-thirds of its population, is facing a new wave of infections but few deaths while the second, where only 15% of the population has received a dose of vaccine, is breaking records of daily deaths. This explains the caution expressed in France on the health situation next fall.
- In the UK, the daily death toll averages eight per day.
- In Russia, on Tuesday alone, 652 people died of Covid-19, a record since the start of the epidemic in the country.
- Russia has raised its tone and more and more regions are making vaccination compulsory, under penalty of sanctions.
- In France, the Institut Pasteur warns of a 4th wave next fall due to insufficient vaccination rates
As global vaccination progresses, with just under one in four people (23%) having received one dose of the vaccine and one in ten having received both injections, the spread of the Delta variant is of concern. Discovered last April in India, the variant led to a spike in cases in the country before spreading across the world. Several studies have shown it to be about 50% more contagious than the alpha, or English variant, itself about 50% more contagious than the initial strain.
In Russia, a new death record
The effects of the Delta variant on the population help to highlight the importance of vaccination, in particular by comparing Great Britain and Russia.
In the first country, around two-thirds of the population have received a dose of the vaccine – 44,581,771 people as of June 29, according to a government tally – and almost half had both injections – that is 32,721,762 people. In Great Britain, the Delta variant is the majority since it now represents 96% of new infections. This forced the country to postpone the lifting of health restrictions until July 19, as a precautionary measure. However, the number of daily deaths has not soared and amounts to eight per day on average.
In the second country, vaccination is slow. Only about 15% of the population has received at least one injection, or about 2.2 million Russians out of 146 million inhabitants, according to figures from the site Gogov. The country is facing a third epidemic wave due to the spread of the Delta variant, and this one is proving particularly deadly. On Tuesday alone, 652 people died of Covid-19, a record since the start of the epidemic in the country. In Saint Petersburg, 119 people died on Tuesday, the third record since… Saturday.-
Delta variant is not more lethal
The comparison between the two countries shows the importance of vaccination to avoid a return to the rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Russia has also raised its tone and more and more regions are making it compulsory, under penalty of sanctions.
While vaccines do not prevent new infections, they reduce them and above all prevent them from causing hospitalizations and deaths. A study of the Public Health England pointed out that the Delta variant lowers the protection of the mRNA vaccines, the Pfizer and the Moderna, against the development of symptoms in the event of contamination compared to the initial strain by 90% to 80%. For the AstraZeneca, this protection drops to 60%. For hospitalizations and deaths, protection remains the same as against other strains. “The Delta variant takes the place of the other variants, but is not lethal as was initially assumed”, underlines Gérald Kierzek, emergency doctor at the Hôtel-Dieu hospital (AP-HP) in Paris, interviewed by LCI. In England, for example, only one person hospitalized in ten years with Covid-19 has received both injections.
The Pasteur Institute plans a possible fourth wave in the fall
In France, the Delta variant represents about 20% of new cases of infection. Except in the Landes, where it has become a majority and has forced the government to react quickly to prevent it from spreading, but the trend is now in decline. As a precaution, certain restrictive measures are maintained in the department, at least until July 6. The Delta variant continues to spread. According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), it is expected to account for 90% of new Covid-19 cases in the European Union by the end of August.
In forecasts presented on Monday, the Pasteur Institute warns of a possible fourth wave in the fall. The institute believes that “under realistic hypotheses concerning the R0 (the number of people infected by a patient, without protective measures) of the dominant variant and the vaccination coverage this autumn, a significant peak in hospitalizations is possible in the absence of any control measure for the epidemic”. The researchers established a reference scenario where 0% of 12-17 year olds, 70% of 18-59 year olds and 90% of over 60 year olds are vaccinated, with the Alpha variant in circulation and without control measures. With this scheme, they foresee “a peak in hospitalizations comparable to the fall 2020 peak”.
For the Pasteur Institute, unvaccinated people contribute disproportionately to the circulation of the virus. “An unvaccinated person is 12 times more likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 than a vaccinated person.“, he assures. Vaccination of the youngest appears to be crucial in the future of the epidemic, especially in view of the start of the school year. This group represents about a quarter of the population and is thought to be responsible for almost half of the infections and transmissions of the virus. “Control of viral circulation in schools, colleges, high schools could be necessary to reduce the pressure on the hospital system”, project the researchers.
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