Decent living standards can be provided for 10 billion human beings, who are expected to populate the Earth by 2050, for less than 40% of current global energy.
- Global energy consumption in 2050 could be reduced to 1960s levels and still provide a decent standard of living for a population three times larger.
- In countries that are today the biggest consumers per capita, energy reductions of almost 95% are possible while ensuring a decent standard of living for all.
- Only 17% of global final energy consumption comes from non-fossil fuel sources.
The world population is expected to approach 10 billion in the coming decades. If a recent study estimated that this figure would not be reached and that the population peak is expected for 2064 with 9.7 billion, the possibility of reaching 10 billion must still be taken into account. Either way, a new study, led by researchers at the University of Leeds (UK), suggests that decent living standards can be provided for 10 billion people for less than 40% of the current global energy. The results were published in the November edition of the journal Global Environmental Change.
No cavemen
Global energy consumption in 2050 could be reduced to 1960s levels and still provide a decent standard of living for a population three times larger. This is about 25% of the International Energy Agency forecast if current trends continue and cover all basic human needs such as housing, mobility, food and hygiene while also having access to high-quality health care, education and information technology. Achieving this would require sweeping changes in current consumption, widespread deployment of cutting-edge technologies, and the elimination of mass global inequalities.
The results show that the energy needed to sustain a decent life could probably be met entirely from clean sources. The authors refute claims that reducing global consumption to sustainable levels requires the end of modern comforts and a “back to the dark ages”. “Yes, maybe, but these are rather luxurious caves with very efficient facilities for cooking, storing food and washing clothes; comfortable temperatures maintained throughout the year, computer networks – among others – not to mention the largest caves offering universal health care and education to all children from 5 to 19 years old”, the researchers quipped in the face of criticism that radical energy reform would require that we all become “cave dwellers”.
Discounts of almost 95% possible
For this study, the researchers calculated the actual energy needs to ensure a decent standard of living. It is that delivered to the consumer’s doorstep, for example, the heat, electricity or gasoline that goes into a car, rather than the energy embodied in the fuels themselves, much of which is lost in power plants for example in the case of fossil fuels. The team built an energy model that is based on a list of basic material needs for human well-being.
They compared current final energy consumption in 119 countries to estimates of the final energy needed for a decent life and found that the vast majority of countries live in a significant surplus. In countries that are today the biggest consumers per capita, energy reductions of almost 95% are possible while ensuring a decent standard of living for all. “Currently, only 17% of global final energy consumption comes from non-fossil fuel sources. But that’s nearly 50% of what we believe is needed to provide a decent standard of living for all in 2050”, advances Dr. Joel Millward-Hopkins, lead author of the study.
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