In a study published in the British medical journal The Lancet, health experts looked at the data on the death rate of the two influenza currently raging in Asia, the H7N9 virus and H5N1. Result: 36% of hospitalized patients died after the H7N9 flu, or nearly a third of patients.
By comparing these figures with those concerning the H5N1 avian influenza epidemic, specialists have realized that the latter is even more virulent with 60% of deaths among hospitalized patients. Between 1,500 and 27,000 Chinese have been affected by this virus, but in a large part of the cases, the patients only suffered from a cold and did not consult a doctor.
For this report, the team from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has gathered medical, epidemiological and clinical information about patients, bringing them together in a database.
An unlikely pandemic
According to the latest report published by Chinese health authorities, among the 131 people infected with the H7N9 virus, 39 have died and 14 are in critical condition. Experts estimate the risk of death from this flu between 0.16% and 2.8%.
The good news, according to the World Health Organization, is that the risk of a pandemic would be unlikely. Transmission between humans is rare and the onset of summer should reduce the risk of spread. The organization calls for caution, however, as we are not immune to an increase in cases of infection in the fall.
Same story with the authors of the study, who conclude by stating that “the human infection caused by the H7N9 virus appears to be less severe than previously indicated. Intensive and constant vigilance efforts are needed to minimize the risk of infection. “
