Two defense councils are planned to study a toughening of the measures in the face of the second wave of the virus which is falling on France. For many scientists and doctors, it could be even fiercer than the first.
- The number of daily cases officially exceeds 50,000 but could actually be 100,000, according to the Scientific Council.
- Unlike the first wave, the virus is circulating everywhere on the territory.
- The number of hospitalizations could exceed the peak of the first wave in the coming weeks.
The specter of the health situation of last spring is resurfacing and a new confinement, an option long dismissed by the government, seems more and more likely. The constant and significant increase in the number of daily cases, intensive care admissions and deaths across the territory, like the restrictive measures which are accumulating in neighboring countries, are all indicators which make us fear the worst. This second wavewill probably be stronger than the first”, even believes Jean-François Delfraissy, the president of the Scientific Council on RTLMonday, October 26.
The virus is everywhere on the territory
In recent days, the virus has spread extremely rapidly. On Thursday October 22, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran indicated that “without new measures, there would be more than 50,000 cases per day in 15 days” to justify the implementation of the curfew extended to more than 50 departments. Barely 4 days later, this ceiling of 50,000 cases has already been exceeded and the reality could be even higher. “The Scientific Council estimates that we are rather around 100,000 cases per daysays its president. Between the diagnosed cases, the cases which are not diagnosed, the asymptomatic cases… We are around this figure. We have a virus that is circulating extremely quickly.”
Unlike the first wave where the virus circulated with intensity in certain regions, it is now widespread throughout the territory. “What is a problem for us is that the situation is serious throughout France”, laments to France info Professor Éric Caumes, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at La Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris. A finding shared by infectious disease specialist Gilles Pialoux. “The current difficulty is precisely the fact that we have a national diffusion of the epidemic, it is the paradox, whereas we were rather, in France, in epidemics concentrated in the first wave. There it goes from Roubaix to Rodez. The virus is everywhere, and we probably lost track in August”, indicated the head of the infectious diseases department of the Tenon hospital in Paris, questioned by BFM-TV.
“Reconfine the country”
The number of hospitalizations could also exceed the levels of the first wave. “We will have more people hospitalized than during the first wave. (…) We are going to exceed the number of hospitalizations in the spring, which was 32,000 at the peak, we are already at 17,000 and we are going to go higher”, estimates Renaud Piarroux, head of the service at the Pitié-Salpêtrière in Paris, to BFM-TV. Currently, the occupancy rate of beds in intensive care is close to that of the beginning of March, just before confinement. Covid patients currently fill 50.9% of intensive care beds.
All these data lead the doctors who follow one another in the media to a consensus: the second wave will be harder than the first. A situation which leads the President of the Republic to bring together two scientific councils, the first this Tuesday and a second Wednesday, to think about new measures to contain it as well as possible. “We are the nose facing the wall of reality. It’s more critical, earlier, stronger, and more impactful for the life of the hospital”, asserts Gilles Pialoux who judges that the epidemic is “out of control” and calls for stronger measures than bringing forward the curfew to 7 p.m., which he believes “insufficient”. His solution? “Reconfine the country.”
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