Covid-19: the increase in contamination deemed “exponential” after the latest figures

A few days before the start of the school year, and while many workers are preparing to return to the office on Monday, the health situation in France is deteriorating.

In his point on the Covid-19 epidemic dated August 28, Public Health France considers that “the progression of the epidemic is exponential” and considers the dynamics of the transmission that it observed from August 17 to 23 “worrying”.

At issue: the sharp increase in cases with symptoms of Covid-19. This shows an increase of 74% compared to the previous week, with more than half of the confirmed cases. A trend that mainly affects young adults, but does not exclude other age groups. The positivity rates for samples are also on the rise (+3.7% compared to the previous week), as is the number of clusters (192 additional).

For the first time since the beginning of the summer, 78 departments exceeded the threshold for the incidence rate of 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in the week of August 17 to 23. Thus, as of August 28, 2020, 52 departments were declared to be in a situation of vulnerability, including 17 in a situation of high vulnerability. These are Martinique, Guadeloupe (including Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy), Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Gironde, Guyana, Hauts-de-Seine, Hérault, Loiret, Paris, Rhône, Sarthe, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-de-Marne, Val-d’Oise, Var and Vaucluse.

“These results indicate that it is essential to continue efforts to raise awareness among the entire population in the application of barrier gestures, in particular the use of masks and physical distancing to curb the spread of the virus”explains Public Health France. “The more time passes, the more things become clearer and the more we can ensure that we are not going to a plateau”further specifies the Figaro Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, epidemiologist at the health agency.

An increase in contamination in companies

If the start of the school year crystallizes the concerns of parents and health professionals, the return of workers to their companies raises fears of a month of September under tension.

According to figures from the Regional Health Agencies, contamination in companies is indeed increasing, in particular in the Paris basin which concentrates a large part of the activities. Hence the significant increase in clusters in recent weeks. According to Santé Publique France, 33% of these sources of contamination with at least 3 detected or probable cases are companies, compared to 9% in extended family gatherings and 19% in public or private gatherings. Public administration (public order, security, fire and rescue services in particular) and the manufacturing industry are currently the most represented sectors of activity among the clusters.

“It is to be feared that the number of cases grouped in companies will increase after the long holidays with a return of employees, analysis for Le Figaro Pascal Crépey, epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes. These data clearly justify the obligation to wear a mask in a confined professional environment.

Do not bet on herd immunity

Faced with the high risk represented by the month of September in the spread of the virus, it is therefore less and less a question of betting on “herd immunity” to eliminate SARS-CoV-2, that is to say to wait until two-thirds of the population have been infected for the virus to stop circulating on its own.

“For France, this represents around 40 million peopleunderlined in The Dispatch Dr. Luc Dauchet, epidemiologist at the University Hospital of Lille. Before they are all contaminated, it can take a long time, even by removing the barrier gestures that slow the circulation of the virus.

Especially since betting on collective immunity would necessarily cause many victims, starting with, as during the first wave, fragile people and those over 65%. “You have to imagine that hospitals will be overloaded again, that there will be a further increase in the number of deaths. Collective immunity is a strategy that has undesirable human consequences”recalls the specialist.

According to him, it is better to wait for the marketing of a vaccine against Covid-19. “The vaccine is another way to achieve herd immunity, without people being infected. If you vaccinate two-thirds of people against Covid-19, then it will disappear on its own. Smallpox has disappeared from this way.”