The disappearance of the virus would be even more likely than that of polio.
- The first smallpox vaccination campaigns began in the 1950s.
- Those intended to fight against poliomyelitis started ten years later.
- Since the start of the pandemic, there have been more than 200 million cases of Covid-19.
It is a message of optimism at a time when epidemic waves are linked. In the specialist journal BMJ Global Health, a team of researchers believes that the eradication of Covid-19 is possible. To achieve this, however, it will be necessary to succeed in accomplishing several challenges, in particular a sufficient level of vaccination and the ability to act against new variants.
Several criteria to define eradication
Eradication of SARS-CoV-2 corresponds, according to the authors, to the persistent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection, caused by a specific agent, as the result of deliberate efforts. To determine if it was possible to reach this state, the scientists carried out comparisons with the smallpox and poliomyelitis, other viruses for which vaccines are available. They also took into account various technical, socio-political and economic factors that are important in the success of the objective. Researchers used a three-point scoring system for each of 17 variables such as availability of a safe and effective vaccine, lifelong immunity, impact of public health measures, political and public concerns about economic impacts and social conditions of infection, and public acceptance of virus control measures.
More difficult conditions compared to smallpox and poliomyelitis
As a reminder, smallpox was eradicated in 1980 and two of the three poliovirus stereotypes have been eradicated worldwide. In total, the smallpox score was 2.7, compared to 1.6 for Covid-19 and 1.5 for poliomyelitis. “Even though our analysis is a first step, with several subjective factors, it seems to put the eradication of COVID-19 in the realms of possibility, especially in terms of technical feasibility.“, conclude the researchers. They point out that in comparison to smallpox and poliomyelitis, new challenges complicate the eradication of SARS-CoV-2, in particular the difficult acceptance of vaccines and the emergence of variants, capable of withstand immunity.”There are nevertheless limits to viral evolution, we can expect the virus to reach its peak, is that new vaccines can be formulated“, they believe. The high costs of vaccination and the necessary international cooperation are also part of the difficulties to be faced.
A context that facilitates eradication
Despite these challenges, the researchers shed light on several points that could contribute to the eradication of the virus. First, the global will to fight infection, because the impact of Covid-19 from a health, economic and social point of view has generated global interest “unprecedented” in disease control. Unlike smallpox and poliomyelitis, the virus also benefits from the impact of public health measures, such as border controls, social distancing, contact tracing and the wearing of mask.
.
