You have known for a long time that promises only bind those who listen to them… Like every year, the COP is a meeting of dunces and bad students who want to clear their conscience. It’s been a long time since anyone expected anything from it. Cop28 objectives and disillusionments…
Whistleblowers like Greta “Bla Bla” Thunberg or the engineer Jean-Marc Jancovici don’t have too many illusions as to the results to be expected from the COP28 which opens in Dubai. For both, the main benefits to be expected consist above all of crystallizing media interest in climate issues.
Given the urgency of the situation and the threatening promises of the future, capturing the attention of the entire world for a few days a year, that’s always the case… While waiting for better: actions.
We saved the world!
In December 2015 in Paris, nearly 200 governments from around the world committed to doing what was necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep the rise in global temperature between 1.5 and 2°C by 2050.
The collective objective of COP21 seemed clear: relieve the planet by containing as much as possible the disastrous consequences of global warming.
We then spoke of “ giant step » and some even declared with relief: “Nwe saved the world“. But as the Paris Agreement did not provide no sanction in cases of non-compliance with commitments, very little progress has been made.
Studies clearly show that the promises have not been kept.
Greenhouse gas emissions have further increased each year by 1.5% on average and we even broke all emissions records in 2019, with nearly 60 billion tonnes of CO2. Unsurprisingly, 2020, the year of Covid, was one of the years the hottest for 150 years.
Faced with the climate inaction of the political world, civil society has mobilized, protest and civil disobedience movements have been launched.
The young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg declared: “ Entire ecosystems are collapsing, we are at the start of a mass extinction and all you talk about is money and the fairy tale of eternal economic growth. How dare you ? »
If current trends are confirmed, the average temperature on Earth risksincrease by 3°C by the end of the century. The sixth report of the IPCC may sound the trumpet to remind States to honor their commitments, you might as well piss in a violin…
27 COP for not much
When we take stock of the first 27 editions of the COP, the count is not there at all! In September 2021, the UN officially noted that the trajectory of global warming was 2.7°C by the end of the century.
We are very far from the objective of 1.5°C even though we know full well that every tenth of a degree above this temperature will have serious consequences on the lives and health of populations.…
The UN has certainly noted “ a clear trend toward reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over time » but above all invites States to “ redouble your efforts“.
COP28 binding objectives or empty promises?
So are there still reasons to believe it? Not really…
In total, 127 countries, responsible for 63% of emissions of greenhouse gases, have already committed to a 0 emissions objective or are thinking of doing so.
China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, which would reduce warming by 0.2 to 0.3° in 2100. But it continues to start construction of coal-fired power plants.
The United States rejoined the famous Paris Agreement upon the inauguration of President Biden, to reduce global warming by 0.1°C. However, we are already announcing the great return of shale oil American markets.
The 27 countries of the European Union have agreed to reduce their CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030. NGOs consider this commitment insufficient, they are asking for a 65% reduction.
As for France, it is behind on all its 2015 targets : thermal renovation of buildings, transport, agriculture… No comments!
CO2 emissions on the rise
To achieve the global goal, greenhouse gas emissions would have to be reduced by 7.6% per year every year until 2030. We will not make it.
The proof ? The latest report from the IEA (International Energy Agency) estimated that global energy-related CO2 emissions expected to increase by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021. The post-Covid economic rebound may well cancel out the sharp drop in CO2 emissions recorded in 2020.
Recently questioned about the effectiveness of the COPs, Greta Thunberg demonstrated cruel lucidity: “ As they currently exist, the COPs will lead to nothing unless there is massive public pressure. (…) It’s all just blah blah blah : these are only negotiations and empty speeches, endless discussions which are rarely followed by actions. »
The activist still found a thin sign of hope : “ For us, it is an opportunity to mobilize the public, to draw attention to the crisis, to explain that we are facing an emergency situation… Finally, I think that COP28 is an opportunity to we of mobilize the public around climate change. »