COP 27, the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference begins this Sunday, November 6 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. A new opportunity to see that the plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, validated by all the States seven years ago, has no chance of being respected.
Even if 40,000 delegates are expected in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt), for the holding of COP 27, the 27th United Nations Conference on Climate Change, the real stars of the discipline did not consider it relevant to make the trip…
The real stars shun COP 27 in Egypt
green icon Greta “Bla Bla Bla” Thunberg refused to take part in this vast international greenwashing. The President of the leading country in global greenhouse gas emissions (27% of the total), the Chinese Xi Jinping will not attend this high mass either, any more than his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi (3ᵉ emitting country of the planet).
We could almost regret the absence of Vladimir Putinnot because Russia is ranked 4ᵉ among the “producer” countries of CO2, but because it is Russia that has worked most directly to raise awareness (at least in Europe) of the dangers posed by dependence on fossil fuels. Reducing gas, oil and electricity consumption becomes a must when prices soar and/or supplies stop. A statement as cynical as it is horrible!
Despite all the gestures of the French government, there is obviously no notable progress to be expected this year on the side of tricolor CO2 emissions, since the shutdown of half of the national nuclear fleet has forced the state to react “hard” as usual. The electricity deficit is filled by foreign production, often of fossil origin. Let’s not even talk about LNG imported from the United States whose carbon footprint is 2.5 times higher to that of the gas that we transported by gas pipeline from Russia.
COP 27 provides a space for states to discuss the rights-based climate actions that are necessary if countries are to be empowered to collectively achieve the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature rise to 1 .5°C globally.
+2.4°C at the end of the century?
The most optimistic observers speak today of an average increase in temperatures of 2.4°C at the end of the century but the majority, noting that CO2 emissions will continue to increase in 2022, now agree on the figure, unfortunately more realistic, of 3°C.
Around the world, the climate crisis is weighing more and more heavily about lives and livelihoods: wildfires, sweltering cities, parched farmlands, storm-torn coastlines…
Over the next few years, hundreds of millions of people risk having to leave their places of residence due to rising sea levels and massive food shortages. Not to mention that climate change is aggravating already existing inequalities.
Unless governments act quickly and boldly to massively reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this situation will get worse beyond the imaginable.
We saved the world!
In December 2015 in Paris, nearly 200 governments around the world pledged to do what is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise to between 1.5 and 2°C by 2050.
The collective objective of COP21 seemed clear: relieve the planet by containing the disastrous consequences of global warming as much as possible.
We were talking about ” giant step and some even declared with relief: “Nwe saved the world“. But since the Paris Agreement did not provide no penalty where commitments are not met, very little progress has been made.
Studies clearly show that promises have not been kept.
Greenhouse gas emissions have further increased by 1.5% each year on average and we even broke all emissions records in 2019, with nearly 60 billion tonnes of CO2. Unsurprisingly, 2020, the year of Covid, was one of the years the hottest for 150 years.
Faced with climate inaction from the political world, civil society has mobilized, protest and civil disobedience movements have been launched.
The young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said: ” Entire ecosystems are collapsing, we’re at the start of a mass extinction and all you’re talking about is money and the fairy tale of eternal economic growth. How dare you ? »
If current trends are confirmed, the average temperature on Earth is likely toincrease by 3°C by the end of the century. The sixth report of the IPCC may sound the trumpet to remind States to honor their commitments, might as well piss in a violin…
26 COP for not much
When we do, just before COP 27, the results of the first 26 editions of the COP, the account is not there at all! In September 2021, the UN officially noted that the trajectory of global warming was 2.7°C for the end of the century.
We are very far from the objective of 1.5°C whereas we know full well that each tenth of a degree above this temperature will have serious consequences on the life and health of populations.…
The UN has certainly noted ” a clear trend of reducing greenhouse gas emissions over time but above all invites States to redouble our efforts“.
COP26 binding objectives or empty promises?
So are there still reasons to believe in this new COP 27? Not really…
A total of 127 countries, responsible for 63% of emissions greenhouse gas emissions, have already committed to a 0 emissions objective or are considering doing so.
China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which would reduce warming by 0.2 to 0.3° in 2100. But it continues to build coal-fired power plants.
The United States rejoined the famous Paris Agreement as soon as President Biden was inaugurated, to reduce global warming by 0.1°C. However, American shale oil has made a comeback on the markets.
The 27 countries of the European Union have agreed to reduce their CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030. The NGOs consider this commitment insufficient, they are asking for a reduction of 65%.
As for France, it is behind on all of its 2015 targets : thermal renovation of buildings, transport, agriculture… No comments!
CO2 emissions on the rise
To achieve the global target, greenhouse gas emissions would need to be reduced by 7.6% per year every year until 2030. We will not get there.
The proof ? The latest IEA (International Energy Agency) report estimated that global energy-related CO2 emissions expected to increase by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021. The post-Covid economic rebound may well undo the sharp drop in CO2 emissions recorded in 2020.
Asked about the effectiveness of COPs, Greta Thunberg showed cruel lucidity: “ As they currently exist, COPs will lead nowhere unless there is massive public pressure. (…) It’s all just blah-blah-blah : these are just negotiations and empty speeches, endless discussions that are rarely followed by action. »
The only sign of hope what this COP 27 gives is the message it sends around the world. Indeed, it is an opportunity to mobilize the public around climate change, to draw attention to the crisis, to explain that we are facing an emergency situation…
