As you have known for a long time, promises are only binding on those who listen to them… As every year, the COP is a meeting of dunces and bad students who want to clear their consciences. It’s been a long time since anyone expected anything. Cop26 goals and disappointments…
Whistleblowers like Greta “Bla Bla” Thunberg or the engineer Jean-Marc Jancovici don’t have too many illusions as to the results to be expected from the COP26 which opens in Glasgow. For both of them, the main benefits to be expected consist above all in crystallizing the interest of the media on climate issues.
In view of the urgency of the situation and the threatening promises of the future, capturing the attention of the whole world for a few days a year, it’s always taken… While waiting for better: actions.
We saved the world!
In December 2015 in Paris, nearly 200 governments around the world pledged to do what is necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise to between 1.5 and 2°C by 2050.
The collective objective of COP21 seemed clear: relieve the planet by containing the disastrous consequences of global warming as much as possible.
We were talking about ” giant step and some even declared with relief: “Nwe saved the world“. But since the Paris Agreement did not provide no penalty where commitments are not met, very little progress has been made.
Studies clearly show that promises have not been kept.
Greenhouse gas emissions have further increased by 1.5% each year on average and we even broke all emissions records in 2019, with nearly 60 billion tonnes of CO2. Unsurprisingly, 2020, the year of Covid, was one of the years the hottest for 150 years.
Faced with the inaction of the political world, civil society has mobilized, protest movements and civil disobedience have been launched.
The young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said: ” Whole ecosystems are collapsing, we are at the beginning of a mass extinction and all you talk about is money and the fairy tale of eternal economic growth. How dare you ? »
If current trends are confirmed, the average temperature on Earth is likely toincrease by 3°C by the end of the century. The sixth report of the IPCC may sound the trumpet to remind States to honor their commitments, might as well piss in a violin…
25 COP for not much
When we take stock of the first 25 editions of the COP, the account is not there at all! In September 2021, the UN officially noted that the trajectory of global warming was 2.7°C for the end of the century.
We are very far from the objective of 1.5°C whereas we know full well that each tenth of a degree above this temperature will have serious consequences on the life and health of populations.…
The UN has certainly noted ” a clear trend of reducing greenhouse gas emissions over time but above all invites States to redouble your efforts“.
COP26 binding objectives or empty promises?
So are there still reasons to believe it? Not really…
A total of 127 countries, responsible for 63% of emissions greenhouse gas emissions, have already committed to a 0 emissions objective or are considering doing so.
China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which would reduce warming by 0.2 to 0.3° in 2100. But it continues to build coal-fired power plants.
The United States rejoined the famous Paris Agreement as soon as President Biden was inaugurated, to reduce global warming by 0.1°C. However, we are already announcing the great comeback of shale oil American in the markets.
The 27 countries of the European Union have agreed to reduce their CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030. The NGOs consider this commitment insufficient, they are asking for a reduction of 65%.
As for France, it is behind on all of its 2015 targets : thermal renovation of buildings, transport, agriculture… No comments!
2021: CO2 emissions on the rise
To achieve the global target, greenhouse gas emissions would need to be reduced by 7.6% per year every year until 2030. We won’t get there.
The proof ? The latest IEA (International Energy Agency) report estimated that global energy-related CO2 emissions expected to increase by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021. The post-Covid economic rebound may well cancel out the sharp drop in CO2 emissions recorded in 2020.
Asked recently about the effectiveness of COPs, Greta Thunberg showed cruel lucidity: “ As they currently exist, COPs will lead nowhere unless there is massive public pressure. (…) It’s all just bla-bla-bla : these are just negotiations and empty speeches, endless discussions that are rarely followed by action. »
The activist found there all the same a small sign of hope : “ For us, it’s an opportunity to mobilize the public, to draw attention to the crisis, to explain that we are facing an emergency situation… Finally, I think that COP26 is an opportunity to we of mobilize the public around climate change. »
