Natural disasters, almost entirely linked to global warming, will kill 150,000 Europeans by 2100.
The consequences of global warming have not finished talking about them. While for many people on Earth, they still seem theoretical and hypothetical, scientific studies serve as a reminder of the alarming reality that awaits us all. The latest is nothing to welcome.
According to this work, published in the Lancet Planetary Health, climate change will quickly become a burden on societies. By 2100, more than 150,000 Europeans could die from extreme weather events if nothing is done to stem the rise in temperatures.
Portugal, Spain, Italy
This represents fifty times more deaths attributable to the environment than today. The risk will be particularly accentuated for the countries of southern Europe – Portugal, Spain, Italy.
According to the model used by the researchers, the number of deaths due to climate change will drop from 3,000 per year between 1981 and 2010 to 152,000 per year between 2071 and 2100 – if, however, no action is taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and the impact of extreme weather events.
“Climate change is one of the greatest threats of the 21st century to human health,” the researchers underline. Unless global warming is urgently curbed, some 350 million Europeans (compared to 25 million for the reference period) could be exposed each year to harmful climatic extremes by the end of the century ”. This represents two out of three Europeans affected by events.
Heat waves, cold snap …
The study analyzed the consequences of the seven deadliest climate-related disasters – heatwaves, cold spells, forest fires, droughts, river and coastal floods and storms – in the 28 countries of the European Union as well as in Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.
The team of researchers examined the archives from 1981 to 2010 to assess the vulnerability of populations. She then associated these data with a model of the evolution of climate change and population growth.
According to their conclusions, heat waves are by far the deadliest climate disaster and cause 99% of deaths, going from 2,700 deaths per year over the period 1981-2010 to 151,500 deaths per year over the period 2071-2100.
Coastal flooding is also believed to be much deadlier, dropping from six deaths per year in 1981-2010 to 233 in 2071-2100. Climate change would represent 90% of the risk, the rest being linked to population growth, migration and urban planning.
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