MAINTENANCE. France is aging. As baby boomers become grandpa boomers, the annual number of deaths is expected to increase in the decades to come.
Mortality is on the rise again in France. While the trend has been stable since the mid-1940s, 2015 was marked by a sharp rise in the number of deaths. At issue: a particularly virulent flu epidemic at the beginning of the year, a scorching July and a cold snap in October. But a fundamental trend has been observed for several years, and it should increase. Two researchers explain the reasons in the journal of the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), Population & Societies. Interview with Gilles Pison, professor at the National Museum of Natural History.
Since the 1940s, mortality has been stable in France. Why ?
Gilles Pison: Two factors explain this maintenance. Life expectancy at birth has improved a lot, an average of 3.5 months per year. The second factor is the effect of the empty classes, born during the First World War. From 1915 to 1919, births were half as numerous as before and after the war. When they reached the high ages where deaths are concentrated – in the years 1980 to 2000 – the annual level of deaths remained at a relatively low level. The echo of a phenomenon that dates back 80-90 years has been observed.
How do you explain that the numbers are on the rise again?
Gilles Pison: We have entered a new period, which is the increase in deaths. It is expected to grow over the next few decades for two reasons. The effect of these empty classes disappears for lack of survivors. A second phenomenon is at play: baby–boomers – these larger generations which correspond to births from 1946 to 1973 – become Grandpa–boomers and come to the ages when we die. This will inflate the annual number of deaths in the next few years, even if the lifespan continues to lengthen as we observe regularly.
What is the impact of epidemics and weather in these variations?
Gilles Pison: They do not prevent major underlying trends, but add fluctuations from year to year. For the most part, they are due to influenza epidemics: their precocity, their severity and the mortality they cause. The current epidemic, which is almost at its peak, is not very lethal. On the other hand, that of last year was very deadly, hence this peak in mortality compared to 2014.
Other events, like the heat, are added. In 2003, the heatwave resulted in excess mortality over the year and under-mortality in 2004 due to a harvest effect. Some of the elderly and frail died prematurely, which depressed the deaths in 2004.
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