While, in the majority of cases, patients with the Sars-Cov-2 coronavirus recover within a few days, in certain situations, a serious form can occur – with in particular severe pulmonary damage. Problem: How to predict which patients are at risk of developing severe complications from Covid-19?
To answer this question, a start-up in La Rochelle has developed an algorithm capable of accurately estimating which patients are at risk of severe Covid-19. This algorithm (created by the company Numa Health) was tested on 50 patients hospitalized in La Rochelle between March and June 2020: for patients at low “risk of degradation”, the reliability was around 95%; for those with a high risk of severe complications, 70%.
A blood test and a questionnaire to predict the complications of Covid-19
How it works ? Concretely, the software developed by this French company only needs a blood sample to predict a possible worsening of the patient’s condition. “The idea is to use a simple blood test to determine which patients are likely to deteriorate because upon arrival at the emergency room, all the markers are not necessarily red, but the software can predict that they will become“explained David Chalvet, medical director of Numa Health, to our colleagues at France Blue.
At the same time, the patient must complete a questionnaire concerning his lifestyle: does he smoke? Does he drink alcohol on a regular basis? What is her body mass index (BMI)? These two combined elements could, in the long term, facilitate the work of health professionals in order to take care of patients with the highest risk of complications linked to Covid-19 as quickly as possible.
Of course, the algorithm has yet to be tested: the next step is a study conducted on 90 patients. The marketing of the algorithm is not expected before the end of 2021 …
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