The pandemic would have caused three times more deaths than the official report: why?

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Covid-19 epidemic caused 5.9 million deaths worldwide between January 1, 2020 and January 31, 2021.

Yes, but here it is: according to a study recently published in the specialized journal The Lancetthe SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus would have, in reality, caused the death of 18.2 million people worldwide between 2020 and 2021. That is 3 times more than the official toll.

How can this (large) difference be explained? To understand this impressive figure, you have to look at the method used by the researchers. First, the study authors collated data regarding the number of deaths that occurred in 74 countries and 266 regions of the world in 2020, 2021 and up to 11 years back.

A mathematical model for calculating excess mortality

Then, based on the global mortality database as well as that on human mortality from the European Statistical Office, the researchers designed a mathematical model to estimate the excess mortality caused by the Covid-19 epidemic. This computer tool then estimated the global excess mortality at 120 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, or 18.2 million deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. CQFD.

According to the researchers, the excess mortality linked to Covid-19 would be particularly high in the Andes region, in South America (with an excess mortality of 512 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants over the period studied), in Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), in Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants), in southern sub-Saharan Africa (309 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). and in Central America (274 deaths per 100,000 population).

On the other hand, some countries and territories have experienced fewer deaths than expected, i.e. lower excess mortality than expected, given the mortality rate of previous years: this is particularly the case for Iceland (48 fewer deaths per 100,000), Australia (38 fewer deaths per 100,000) and Singapore (16 fewer deaths per 100,000).

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