In 2020, the excess mortality in France was 55,000 deaths while around 68,000 people succumbed to Covid-19.
- Covid-19 deaths have partly hit frail people with other illnesses and a fraction of them would have died in 2020 anyway, even in the absence of a Covid-19 outbreak.
- Be that as it may, “the assessment of the year 2020 remains overwhelming”, conclude the researchers.
In 2020, there were 55,000 additional deaths compared to 2019, an increase of 9.2%. These deaths are, in large part, due to the coronavirus epidemic which alone has led to 68,000 deaths. By subtracting the two figures, we realize that there are 13,000 Covid deaths which do not constitute additional deaths compared to the previous year. In a study published on Wednesday March 17two researchers from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) have tried to see more clearly and to find the reasons for this discrepancy.
Part of the deaths linked to the aging of the population
“Part of this increase – around 13,000 deaths – is due to the aging of the population which is observed each year in the absence of a gain in life expectancy.”, the researchers immediately asked. This therefore means that by removing these deaths independent of any epidemic context, the excess mortality in 2020 amounts to 42,000 deaths.
Decline in other causes of death
For the rest, the researchers put forward several factors. First, they record “a decline in other causes of death,seasonal flu epidemic not having caused any significant excess mortality at the start of 2020, whereas that of the previous winter had resulted in an additional 12,000 deaths. Another notable decline: road deaths were lower due to traffic restrictions.”
The other explanatory factor, according to them, is comorbidity and the fact that some of the victims of Covid would be “anyway” died of another cause. “Covid-19 deaths have partly hit frail people with other illnessescontinue the researchers. A fraction of them would have died anyway in 2020, even in the absence of the Covid-19 epidemic. Their death would then have been attributed to another cause (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory failure, etc.).” It is for the moment impossible to quantify the importance of this phenomenon for lack of data, specify the researchers.
The first wave of Covid, like the flu
The excess mortality in 2020 occurred in two waves, in the spring and in the fall, corresponding to the two epidemic waves linked to SARS-CoV-2. The researchers realized that their magnitude can be compared to those of the excess mortality waves of the previous five years, “all linked to seasonal flu outbreaks”. If during the first wave of coronavirus, the excess mortality peak is “higher and more concentrated in time” than during an influenza epidemic, the toll is not much higher. In contrast, “the excess mortality of the autumn wave is significantly higher, even when limited to deaths occurring in 2020concede demographers. The peak is lower, but more spread out. The total toll including the deaths of 2021 is already expected to be higher than those of the flu epidemics of recent years.”
The researchers also looked at whether the Covid-19 epidemic hit older people more than other illnesses. “The age distribution of deaths from Covid-19 is quite similar to that of general mortalitythey observed. It has been widely said that the elderly are, by far, the first victims of the Covid-19 epidemic. True, but only slightly more than for other causes of death”.
Decline in life expectancy
This increase in mortality from one year to the next is not without consequence. Demographers estimate that it “results in reduced life expectancy at birth”. For women, it goes from 85.6 years to 85.2 years (0.4 years less) and from 79.8 to 79.2 years for men (0.6 years less).
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