While its accounts were supposed to come out of the red, the Social Security should further widen its deficit this year, between 1.7 billion and 4.4 billion euros. This is revealed by a report presented this Tuesday, June 11 by the Audit Committee, relayed by The world. Last September, the Minister of Health Agnès Buzyn announced a debt at its lowest level since 2001, with a return to balance expected for 2019. The situation is ultimately quite different, in particular because of the economic slowdown, but also the movement of “Yellow Vests” and the resulting emergency measures.
Indeed, the deterioration of the accounts is partly explained by lower than expected growth, of 1.4% instead of the 1.7% expected during the vote on the Social Security financing law. The scenario envisaged was also based on a surplus of 100 million, unprecedented since 2001, after a deficit of 1.2 billion last year.
No measurement compensation
According to the Commission, relapse also results “essentially an increase in the wage bill [soumise à cotisations] significantly lower than the initial forecast” of the government. Due to the “Macron bonus” (a total exemption from contributions and taxes up to 1,000 euros), the 3.5% expected in autumn 2018 should only reach 2.9%, according to the program of stability sent to Brussels last April. From “revenue lower than expected”, notes the report, of the order of 1.7 billion euros. Or the amount of the expected deficit.
However, the Commission indicates that the government has shown no intention of compensating for these emergency measures adopted during the social crisis. The relief and exemption from contributions on overtime, the reduction in the rate of general social contribution (CSG) for five million retirees … should aggravate the “hole in the Social Security” of 2.7 billion euros , which could ultimately bring it to 4.4 billion euros. “The trajectory of returning to the balance of Social Security could be called into question”.
The compromised 2020 budget
The surplus programmed for 2020 could therefore also be compromised. New gestures in favor of retirees, announced by Emmanuel Macron in April, must also be financed. Measures including “the total cost is estimated at 1.5 billion euros and which will deteriorate the Social Security balance by the same amount”. “If this unfavorable situation were confirmed, it would probably make it impossible” the takeover by the Social Debt Amortization Fund (Cades) of part of the short-term debt of the central agency of social security bodies (Acoss), again warns the Commission.
Health Minister Agnès Buzyn acknowledged last January that a return to balance in 2019 would be compromised. But the figures have not been revised. The subject was referred to the 2020 budget, presented next September.
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