This is “the” question everyone is asking: how will the coronavirus epidemic evolve at a time when most countries in the world have opted for gradual deconfinement? To answer this (thorny) question, experts from the Covid-19 Scientific Council have developed 4 possible scenarios from the available data.
Scenario 1: the coronavirus epidemic is under control
In this scenario judged “favorable“by the Scientific Council, the coronavirus epidemic is under control: although there are still” clusters “(that is to say: epidemic foci where the Covid-19 disease is spreading), these are well identified and taken care of by the health authorities.
The Sars-Cov-2 virus circulates little (with around 2-3% of positive tests in the entire population) and the number of patients suffering from Covid-19 is low and stable, or even decreasing.
To achieve this resolutely positive scenario, the Scientific Council stresses that it will be essential to continue to respect barrier gestures (washing hands frequently, avoiding close physical contact, using a protective mask in public spaces. .) for at least 6 months. In addition, it will be necessary to put in place a “test-trace-isolate” strategy to identify cases of Covid-19 as quickly as possible and prevent the return of the epidemic.
Good news : the Scientific Council considers that this scenario could very likely “be the scenario (…) of the health situation to come in the coming weeks and months“. So it is not a utopia!
Scenario 2: The coronavirus epidemic resumes, but only at the local level
Slightly less favorable, this scenario assumes that the coronavirus epidemic will resume, with “active but localized circulation of the virus“. We therefore see the development of” critical clusters “, that is to say epidemic outbreaks poorly controlled and difficult to trace, for example in schools, nursing homes or even in companies.
If scenario 2 were to come true, the Scientific Council would recommend “to implement an early, rapid, massive and targeted response to a geographic area“with a local reinforcement of barrier gestures and a” test-trace-isolate “strategy reinforced by additional human resources (nurses, doctors, etc.).
If necessary, local containment measures (at the level of the municipality or the department, for example) could be brought up to date.
Again, there is nothing utopian about this scenario: “this scenario is a probable scenario in the coming weeks given what has been observed in Germany and in certain Asian countries“.
Scenario 3: the coronavirus epidemic resumes, but in a discreet way
In scenario 3, the coronavirus epidemic is not extinct and it continues to develop in the regional and / or national territory. “This resumption of the epidemic reflects (…) loosening of measures to control the circulation of the virus (…) allowing an active resumption of virus transmission“explains the Scientific Council. The virus circulates in particular thanks to inter-regional travel.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing “but at a speed low enough to be still under control“specifies the Scientific Council, which speaks of”low noise recovery“.
Faced with this problematic scenario, experts recommend the establishment of a reinforced prevention and protection plan (P2R-COVID Plan). This includes a reinforcement of barrier gestures, a “test-trace-isolate” strategy, containment measures for people at risk (people 65 years of age and over, people suffering from chronic diseases, etc.), a protocol protection for nursing homes, special attention to Île-de-France and large cities, as well as strengthening of hospital capacities.
Scenario 4: the epidemic reaches a critical stage
This is “the” scenario that everyone wants to avoid. The coronavirus epidemic is resuming with a steadily increasing number of cases and saturated hospital services.
Faced with scenario 4, the Scientific Council evokes the possibility of a second confinement, as strict as the first. “This serious decision will have to be taken taking into account the health impact of the Covid-19 epidemic but also the impact of a second confinement on French society (both in terms of health for non-Covid-19 pathologies as well as in economic and social terms)“add the experts.
Conclusion? “The Scientific Council underlines the importance of preparing now for the evolution of the epidemic over the coming months, by considering the occurrence of four scenarios (…). This preparation aims to have a set of actions and measures to be taken as soon as possible in order to avoid a new generalized containment. “Let’s keep our fingers crossed …
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