A study covering more than 200 countries predicts a boom in life expectancy around the world within a few decades. But not necessarily healthier…
- Despite global warming or the threat of vector-borne pathologies, life expectancy on a global scale is expected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women by 2050, according to a study.
- “In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we found that the disparity in life expectancy between geographic areas will decrease,” according to the researchers.
- However, healthy life expectancy would increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050, an increase of “only” 2.6 years.
Despite global warming or the threat of vector-borne pathologies, the burden of disease could be less heavy. Global life expectancy expected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women by 2050, study finds Global Burden of Disease 2021carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, under the leadership of the University of Washington (United States).
Improved disease survival rates by 2050
To arrive at these figures, published in the journal The Lancet, epidemiology researchers used projection models that take into account various public health measures, such as sociodemographic index and exposure to risk factors, for 204 countries and territories over the period 2022-2050. They thus provided forecasts for different causes of mortality, from non-communicable diseases (cancers, cardiovascular pathologies, diabetes, etc.) to communicable diseases (obesity, high blood pressure, smoking, poor diet, etc.), as well as for exposure to health risks.
The trend is clear: advances in medicine and prevention have made it possible to reduce the prevalence and mortality linked to cardiovascular pathologies, Covid and maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases. With the anticipated result of an improvement in survival rates and an increase of almost 5 years in life expectancy by the middle of the 21st century.
Other good news, “in addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we found that the disparity in life expectancy between geographic areas will decrease”say the scientists in a communicated. Indeed, if inequalities in health between rich and poor regions will remain, the gaps should be reduced, in particular thanks to “to the strong improvements expected in sub-Saharan Africa”.
A prediction of healthy life expectancy… less optimistic
Although we can hope to live longer, it is not certain that we necessarily age better. “More people are expected to live longer, yes, but they will spend more time in poor health”, predict the researchers. Healthy life expectancy – the average number of years a person can hope to live without health problems – would increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050, an increase of “only “2.6 years. If “lost years of healthy life” should therefore decrease, those “lived with a disability” could well jump.
Proof, according to the study, that it is now urgent to reduce the burden of disease by improving the quality of the environment in which we live (reduction of pollution, better diet, physical activity, etc.) and by focusing even more on medicine, starting with vaccination.
