Since the Second World War, Europe had not experienced such decrease in life expectancy. “The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality which has translated into losses in life expectancy around the world”said the authors of a study published on October 17 in the journal Nature Human Behavior. They analyzed the variations in life expectancy between 2019 and 2021 in 27 European countries as well as in the United States and Chile. And for some countries, these increases were still in progress in the first half of 2022.
While some countries such as France, Sweden and Belgium have returned to their pre-pandemic level, others continue to record significant deficits. This is particularly the case in Eastern Europe and the United States. The biggest drop is in Bulgaria, which lost 3.5 years (43 months) life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, followed by Slovakia (-33 months) and the United States (-28 months).
France – like 13 countries including Belgium and Switzerland – has experienced a loss of life expectancy of six months in 2020, but with a rebound in 2021 that almost offset the decline of the previous year. In 2020, the main contributor to this loss had been excess mortality in the over-60s, and the “shift of the mortality burden towards the youngest“was avoided in France and its neighbors in 2021.”They managed to regain pre-pandemic life expectancy levels because they were able to protect both the elderly and the young.”, underlined Pr Jonas Schöley, one of the authors of the study. A challenge that the United States did not meet. “For example, while U.S. over-80 mortality has returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, overall losses in life expectancy have increased due to worsening mortality among younger people. 60 years old“, note the authors.
Only one country did not experience a drop in life expectancy during this period, but at the same time managed to come out with an improvement in this indicator with almost two months more life expectancy, in particular thanks to early vaccination: Norway.
Population less vaccinated, more marked deficit
Indeed, according to the researchers, vaccination against Covid-19 seems to make the difference: the countries whose population is the least vaccinated are at the same time those where the deficits are the most marked. For example, in Bulgaria, the country that has seen the greatest decline, 40% of people over 60 are vaccinated, and only 20% of those under 60. The phenomenon particularly affects the countries of Eastern Europe, as well as the United States.
The comorbidities could also be responsible for these differences: the American population is notably more affected by obesity than in Europe. But these are not the only explanations. “Even before the epidemic, levels of life expectancy were much lower in the east than in the west, reflecting socio-economic differences and gaps between health systems and the ability of countries to implement large-scale public health campaigns”said Professor Ridhi Kashyap, co-author of the study.
And these differences between nations could be maintained over the longer term. “It is plausible that countries with ineffective public health responses are experiencing a protracted pandemic-induced health crisis, with medium-term stagnations in improvements in life expectancy“, concluded the researchers.
Source :
- Life expectancy changes since COVID-19, Nature Human BehaviorOctober 17, 2022
