The number of contaminations is growing in France, but this increase is not yet a sign of a second wave of Covid-19. However, some members of the Scientific Council are concerned about the arrival of autumn and the effect of lower temperatures.
- The number of Covid-19 contaminations has been growing exponentially in France since mid-July, but this phenomenon has not translated into an increase in hospitalizations. The second wave is not here.
- However, doctors are worried about the upcoming drop in temperature. With the cold, the body is more vulnerable to viruses.
- In addition, we tend to group together and ventilate our space less. This behavior is conducive to the proliferation of viruses and probably Covid-19.
The end of summer also marks the decline of sunny days and our collective carelessness. At the start of the 2020 school year, all the health indicators of Public Health France are deteriorating. Thus during the week of August 17 to 23, 26,890 positive cases of Covid-19 were identified, an increase of 57% compared to the previous week. A dizzying figure if we compare it to mid-July where between July 13 and July 19 Public Health France had counted 4,446 weekly cases, or 6 times less than in mid-August.
An “exponential” progression of the virus which worries the epidemiologists of Public Health France. However, it is still too early to speak of a second epidemic wave. A wave is the rapid acceleration to an “epidemic peak”. We are not there yet. As the program Désintox points out, a study by the Institut Pasteur, published last July, estimates that the virus had an effective reproduction rate close to 3 in mid-March, that is to say that a person affected of the virus infected an average of 3 others. In mid-August, it is estimated around 1.38.
If the number of confirmed cases and the proportion of symptomatic cases have increased sharply, the cases of hospitalizations and resuscitation are also progressing but in a moderate way. As of August 25, 4,600 people were hospitalized for Covid-19, including 410 in intensive care. Figures higher than in early August but equivalent to those recorded in early June at the very end of the first wave.
The danger of falling temperatures
If a second wave therefore does not yet seem relevant despite a deterioration in the health situation, many doctors are worried about the coming of winter. “OIt is unclear how the virus will react to the drastic drop in temperaturesexplains Professor Denis Malvy infectiologist at the Bordeaux University Hospital and member of the Scientific Council in the pages of 20 Minutes. If Covid-19 is like other viruses, it will benefit from an even more fertile ground to spread.”
However, the main reason that makes epidemiologists fear a resurgence of Covid-19 from the first drops in temperature is that we will change our way of life at that time. On August 22, Professor Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute for Global Health, said in the columns of the World : “the australian case [NDLR : où après un confinement en mars-avril le pays a subit une deuxième vague fin mai] shows that a second wave can occur in favor of winter, when people are more confined to less ventilated places. It then seems that contamination is facilitated and that an epidemic outbreak is more easily triggered.“
The French Academy of Medicine encourages everyoneespecially children, to get vaccinated against the seasonal flu. An opinion shared by the High Authority for Health. This vaccine does not offer protection against Covid-19 but does relieve emergency room congestion and limit the number of suspected cases requiring a PCR test. The best protection against Covid-19 remains for the World Health Organization (WHO) the maintenance of social distances, the use of barrier gestures and regular hand washing.
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