![Covid-19: how to prevent severe forms?](https://img.passeportsante.net/1000x526/2021-02-05/i99563-covid-19-prevenir-forme-grave.jpeg)
Everyone now knows who are at risk of developing a severe form of the disease caused by Sars-Cov-2. However, a year after the start of the coronavirus epidemic, a question remains unanswered: what elements allow us to predict this evolution of Covid-19 towards a serious form?
A link between viral load and severe form
This question is at the heart of research for scientists from Inserm and the University of Paris: “the objective was to better understand the link between viral kinetics (the amount of virus present in the nasopharyngeal compartment over time) and the course of the disease”. Chief researcher Jérémie Guedj and his team analyzed the data from the cohort “French Covid”, The results of which were published in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America). This study is based on 655 patients hospitalized because of Covid-19. They used a mathematical technique to construct their interpretations. It turns out that the viral load reaches its highest level in the early phase of the disease, about 1 day before the onset of symptoms. In addition, the decrease in the amount of the virus is slower in people over 65 years of age at the nasopharyngeal level. Risk factors are also associated with males and the presence of chronic lung disease. Also, viral shedding may persist for several weeks after the onset of clinical signs.
The importance of antiviral treatments
It is important to study both the virological and the inflammatory aspects, to better manage these patients, but also to reduce mortality. The aim of this study is to identify the people most at risk during their hospitalization to give them a suitable treatment quickly. Indeed, “administration of treatment upon admission to hospital could significantly improve the prognosis of patients, especially the elderly”, Reports Inserm. To date, hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir / ritonavir have not shown conclusive efficacy. This is why the search for a drug capable of blocking the multiplication of the virus must continue, because it is essential.