“Unvaccinated people disproportionately contribute to transmission” says the Institut Pasteur in a new study published on Monday, June 28. In their projections, the researchers believe that a fourth wave is possible if the vaccination does not accelerate before the start of the school year.
A peak to be expected for this fall
Througha new study, the Institut Pasteur studied how the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 might evolve in a partially vaccinated population. Relayed on Twitter by one of its authors, Simon Cauchemez, various scenarios have been studied: who will be infected? who will transmit? Who is at risk of hospitalization? How to control the epidemic?
To arrive at their projections, the study is based on a vaccination coverage of 30% / 70% / 90% among 12-17 year olds / 18-59 years old and over 60 years old. Scientists at the Institute have analyzed the probable evolution of the health situation for this fall. By taking into account the arrival of variants, in particular the Delta (Indian). “This fall, a significant peak in hospitalizations is possible in the absence of any measure to control the Covid-19 epidemic”, they announce. In this modeling, the researchers point the finger at unvaccinated people who “Disproportionately contribute to transmission: an unvaccinated person is 12 times more likely to transmit the virus than a vaccinated person”.
“The situation of children and adolescents is a source of concern”
To avoid an outbreak of cases, the Pasteur Institute is turning to the unvaccinated and more specifically among a category of the population, the 12-17 year olds. “If the epidemic resumes, controlling viral circulation in schools, colleges and high schools could be necessary to reduce the pressure on the hospital system”, they explain. Children and adolescents make up 22% of the population, but roughly half of infections, according to their estimates. “In addition, they are at the origin of about half of the transmissions“, they add.
As for adults, based on their pattern (30% / 70% / 90%), the Institut Pasteur explains that unvaccinated people over 60 years old represent 3% of the population but 35% of hospitalizations.
The Delta variant in the rearview mirror
If we observe what is happening in the United Kingdom, the contaminations are on the rise again and mainly because of the spread of the Delta (Indian) variant. The people most likely to get this mutation are those who are not vaccinated or who do not have the full regimen of anti-Covid serum. Based on the figures of Public Health England (equivalent of Public Health France) between February 1 and June 14, nearly 35,521 cases were identified in unvaccinated people (58.5%) against only 4,087 in people who received their second injection more than two weeks (6.7%).
Researchers are also exploring the possibility of implementing measures only for unvaccinated people. “This nevertheless raises ethical and social questions that it is important to explore”, they claim. Asked about this this Tuesday June 29 by France Info, the Minister of Health is pragmatic “ Let’s imagine that we have a wave – which I don’t want – at the start of the school year or in the fall, I believe that the French would not understand that we would have to ask ourselves the question of closing restaurants, shops, because 20% of French people have chosen not to be vaccinated “.
