Experts estimate that Covid-19 could cause up to 500,000 deaths if no prevention and containment measures were taken.
- The scientist announces the figure of 500,000 deaths if no action was taken
- The scientific council around Emmanuel Macron was aware of this work
- We can expect an increase in serious cases in France in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
What would happen if no measures were taken against the coronavirus? According to estimates made by Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist, the epidemic could cause between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths. This alarmist scenario is calculated taking into account very high transmission and mortality assumptions and without any prevention, confinement or social distancing measures. The newspaper the World publishes these models, which have remained confidential until now.
High estimates…
To obtain these results, the epidemiologist’s team analyzed influenza pandemics and the evaluation of preventive measures. The results obtained with this simulation were transmitted Thursday, March 12 to the President of the Republic. “There were several working documents that were presented, no summary document, said an adviser to the Head of State at World. We cannot therefore consider that a study provided by one of its members reflects the opinion of the scientific council as a whole.” This council was set up on Wednesday March 11, it brings together ten scientific experts whose role is to advise the executive in this time of crisis. The scientific council is consulted when new measures are envisaged, in particular those taken on Saturday March 14, on the closure of all establishments welcoming the public that are not necessary.
..but an increase in the number of cases expected
“But the figures mentioned [de 300 000 à 500 000 morts en cas d’absence de mesures d’endiguement] are infinitely higher than those communicated by the Ministry of Health, they appear disproportionate”, specifies the Elysée. The number of infected people should however increase in the coming weeks. “Given the incubation period – five days on average – and the evolution of the disease over several days, we can expect an increase in the number of serious cases over the next two to three weeks”, explains Simon Cauchemez, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur, at the World.
The scientific council must propose a document summarizing its various works on Sunday. According to the Ministry of Health, still questioned by The worldthe information will be made public on Monday.
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