Since the launch of the vaccination campaign in December 2020, the Jewish state has always been given as an example of success. At the end of February, when nearly half of the population had already received their first dose, the country began to deconfine. In June, Israel lifted the obligation to wear a mask in closed public places, before reimposing it a few days later due to an increase in cases of contamination linkedes to the Delta variantmore contagious.
And, since this summer, and especially in recent weeks, the Covid-19 epidemic is progressing.
The situation epidemiology has deteriorated rapidly since the introduction of the Delta: the incidence rate has fallen from 1/100,000 residents at the beginning of June (June 7 to 13) to 579/100,000 inhabitants in August (August 16 to 22), according to Santé Publique France.The country has even reached a record number of daily contaminations This tuesday 31 august (more than 10 000 registered cases).
A vaccination rate insufficient
Israel hasgot its campaign off to a quick start with a agreement with the Pfizer laboratory, giving it rapid access to vaccine doses, in exchange for data on the effects of the vaccine. But vaccination coverage then leveled off.
Currently, 68% of the population (adults and over 12 years old) have received their first dose of vaccine and approximately 60% To a complete vaccination schedule.
This is less than in France where, on September 1, there were 72% of vaccinated with one dose and 66% with two doses.
If a few months ago, the threshold of 65% was evoked to achieve herd immunity, the Delta variant, being more contagious (with an OR between 6 and 7), this one increased to 85%. And above all, the very idea that the epidemic would be behind us since such a percentage of the population would be vaccinated is now illusory according to many scientists.
A 3rd dose to fight against the increase in contamination
The vaccine – if it remains 90% effective in limiting severe forms – is less so against the risk of contamination (50% only). Also, even with part of the population vaccinated, the virus continues (in a lesser extent) to circulate to unvaccinated people, but also to those who are vaccinated. Above allaccording to health authorities in Israel, those vaccinated as soon as possible. Reason why the country decided to launch end of July a campaign for the administration of a third dose. And even announced on Tuesday to lower the minimum age to receive the booster vaccine to 30 years,in order to fight against an increase in contamination, linked to the delta variant.
A combination of explanations
In its last bulletin dedicated to the circulation of the Delta variant, French Public Health, claim thatthis “degraded” situation could be explained by the fact that “the effect of vaccination attenuates over time, with an impact already visible in those vaccinated first (the oldest)“. Indeed, a recent study in Israel shows “a decrease in the level of protection in people who have been vaccinated for more than 146 days and in particular in the elderly“continues SPF.
Another study conducted in Israel on the kinetics of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination or infection shows that if the amount of antibodies is higher at the beginning in subjects who have been vaccinated and never infected compared to previously infected and unvaccinated subjects, it decreases more quickly after 6 months in the first group compared to the second. “It is not yet established to what extent the resumption of the epidemic in Israel is due to the higher infectivity of the Delta variant, the lower protection of the vaccine against Delta compared to other strains, the decrease in antibody levels or a combination of these factors.“concludes Public Health France.
Asked by Le Figaro on September 1, epidemiologist Antoine Flahault explains that theIsraeli experience shows in any casethat we cannot bet everything on vaccination to fight against this virus: “It is also necessary to combine other measures, for example not to drop the mask indoors too quickly.”, he comments.
On his Twitter account, he points out that children will be at the center of the challenges of this start of the 2021 school year. “Countries that allow their children to fuel the epidemic risk facing a wave as difficult to control as in Israel at the moment, even with 70% of the population vaccinated.“
3/3 – To prevent an Israeli-style situation, you must:
+ a health pass to enter the school for children and adults >12 years old,
+ the mask inside (including sports),
+ ventilation checked by CO2 sensors (<1200 ppm),
+ weekly PCR saliva tests.— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) August 31, 2021
Sources:
- Risk analysis related to emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2, Public Health France to August 25, 2021.
- Le Figaro, September 1.
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