If the latest health measures have been lifted in France with the end of the compulsory wearing of a mask in public transport, the Omicron variant has not disappeared. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control had indeed warned: with the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, the resumption ofCovid-19 outbreak is very likely.
And in Portugal, the 6e wave is there : the two variants of Omicron – and especially the BA.5 – represent the two-thirds of positive cases, according to the country’s National Institute of Health. In just a few weeks, BA.5 replaced the BA.2, hitherto the majority. “According to the national health service, BA.5 could reach a frequency of around 80% by May 22, 2022, a growth rate of 13% per day“, indicates Public Health France in a new risk analysis published on May 18. The number of daily positive cases is also in sharp rise for three weeks, from 650 to 2,500. Figures that place the country in second position in the world (behind Taiwan) in number of daily contaminations.
The mask obligation is still in force in transport and hospitals, but the Director General of Health also strongly recommends wearing it “in closed and crowded environments“, places where they were no longer necessary, without however returning to a formal obligation.
A variant that is transmitted even more easily than BA.2
First spotted in South Africa, the BA.5 variant is transmitted much faster than BA.2, which is still the majority in France. He also has a strong ability to reinfect people who are already infected only a few months ago. “We already have cases that were infected once with the original Omicron variant and again with this BA.5 lineage.“, confirmed the director general of health last week. But, “unlike South Africa, the incidence remains high but stable, with a decrease in hospitalizations“, reassures Public Health France.
The situation in the coming weeks will be played out in the hospital, but the country seems well prepared: the population is there very heavily vaccinated, including with the booster dose (90% in those over 65). However, hospitals risk strengthening their emergency plan, due partly to the arrival of new patients, but also to a lack of staff and other illnesses to be treated, in particular monkey pox (about twenty cases have been identified in Portugal).
Towards a 6th wave in France?
In France, the share of BA.4 and BA.5 in the number of daily cases is increasing, but still remains low. Daily cases continue to decline.
Moreover, in France, the epidemic situation could take a different path than that observed in Portugal. Indeed, in Portugal as in South Africa, the 5th wave was carried by BA.1, while BA.2 circulated little, observes Public Health France. Remember that in France the BA.2, on the other hand, represents 99% of Covid cases.
“But BA.4 and BA.5 are genetically closer to BA.2 than to BA.1, and BA.2 could therefore confer better protection against BA.4 and BA.5. The impact of BA.4 and BA.5 in countries which, like France, have experienced a sustained circulation of BA.2, could therefore be very different from what is currently observed in South Africa and Portugal.’
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