2.6 billion people live in parts of Africa and Asia-Pacific, where local mosquito species and climatic conditions favor the transmission and epidemic of Zika virus, according to the results of astudy published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases. A third of the population could therefore be affected by this disease responsible for microcephaly and joint deformities in newborns and brain malformations in adults.
Researchers at the University of Toronto in Canada, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the University of Oxford (United Kingdom) assessed the circulation of the Zika virus according to its niche of origin (Americas north and south). At the time of analysis, local transmission of Zika virus had been confirmed in 40 countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean. The researchers then collected data on airline ticket sales and then modeled three scenarios for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes. The figures obtained by scientists are alarming.
Countries most at risk of being affected by the Zika virus epidemic
According to the authors of the study, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh may be the countries most vulnerable to the risk of epidemics due to their limited resources. in health per capita. And more than a third of the world’s population lives in areas at high risk of contamination.
“About 2.6 billion people live in parts of Africa and the Asia-Pacific where local mosquito species and suitable climatic conditions make transmission of Zika virus theoretically possible” explains Dr Kamran Khan of Toronto, the main author of the study.
While the analysis emphasizes the risk of human infection with mosquitoes, sexual transmission of infection from the mosquito Zika virus is now well documented. “Travelers returning from affected areas should be informed of the risk to prevent sexual transmission,” the authors reminded.
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