Since the appearance of the Covid epidemic almost two years ago, the variants have followed one another: Delta variant in 2021, then the Omicron and its sub-variants: BA1 (end of 2021), BA.2 (beginning of 2022) , BA.4 and BA.5 last spring. Now, if the BA.5 remains the majority (93% of positive cases), a new sub-variant seems to emerge: the BQ1.1.
New variant BQ.1.1: how many cases in France?
For now, Omicron circulates almost exclusively in France, and its BA.5 sub-lineage remains ubiquitous. “In mainland France, BA.5 (all sub-lineages combined) represented 93% of the interpretable sequences of the Flash S40 survey (03/10)”confirms Public Health France, in its epidemiological bulletin published on October 20. The BA.4 represents 6% of the tests.
Among the BA.5 sublineages, BQ.1.1 sublineage detection is increasingaccording to the “Flash” surveys conducted by SPF:
- Week of September 19: it represented 2% of contaminations
- Week of 09/26: 7%
- Week of October 3: 16%
Should we expect a BQ.1.1 wave? According to SPF, “it is still too early to assess the possible impact of BQ.1.1 on the dynamics of the epidemic.”
Variant BQ.1.1: what we know
BQ1.1 is a subvariant of BQ.1, itself a subvariant of BA.5, itself a subvariant Omicron.
The BQ.1.1 variant is increasing in Europe and North America. According the data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 reached about 11% of viruses sampled in the United States.
According to’Agency Health Protection and Promotion of Ontario, Province of Canada,” although BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 currently account for a small proportion of all cases detected globally, the rate of increase in cases in certain settings indicates increased transmissibility compared to other circulating variants.” They also point out that: “the risk currently presented by BQ11 in terms of transmissibility, reinfection and infection is high, a high degree of uncertainty.”
Other sub-variants are monitored at the same time
Contrary to what has been observed so far on a global scale, a new variant does not clearly replace another variant this fall. On the contrary, we observe the timid emergence of several new variants, all from the Omicron strain.
A month ago, scientists were concerned about the appearance of BA.2.75, also called “Centaur variant”, which had emerged in South Asia.
More recently, the XBB variant, discovered in Singapore in September, raised concern because of its ability to bypass the immune system.
Should we fear these variants?
Clearly to this day: we don’t know.
The problem is that each time a variant emerges, it accumulates mutations that give it advantages in circumventing immunity.
The positive point is that a large part of the world’s population has acquired immunity to severe forms of Covid through vaccination and natural infections and reinfections. Moreover, this group immunity now allows us to be less constrained by health measures and to live normally again.
In short, even if the virus continues to evolve, this is not why it will lead to the resurgence of the epidemic.
On the other hand, what is to be feared is that certain drugs (monoclonal antibodies) used to treat immunocompromised people respond less well, and therefore are likely to lose effectiveness.
