A study published at the European Congress on Obesity predicts an explosion of cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and other chronic liver diseases by 2030 if alcohol consumption and weight change of the French are not decreasing.
- Based on existing data, the study uses modeling that predicts an explosion in cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and chronic liver disease by 2030 if the French continue to gain weight and consume so much alcohol. .
- The researchers thus predict 73,000 new cases of cirrhosis, 55,000 new cases of liver cancer, 61,000 of other chronic liver diseases, but also 425,000 new cases of coronary heart disease and 550,000 strokes.
73,000 new cases of cirrhosis, 55,000 new cases of liver cancer and 61,000 of other chronic liver diseases. Here’s what awaits the French by 2030 if they don’t reduce their alcohol consumption and watch their weight.
These alarming figures come from a new study conducted by HealthLumen, a British company specializing in modeling health issues, and by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), published on Wednesday May 12 on the occasion from European Obesity Congress.
Rise in obesity and alcohol consumption
To achieve these results, the researchers developed computer modeling using already existing health data to make predictions for the years to come. To know here: the evolution of the weight of the French and that of their alcohol consumption. To estimate the first parameter, they extrapolated current data, and concluded that there would be a sharp rise in obesity by 2030. The number of obese people among the French population would thus increase from 19.3% to 31.3 % in women and from 17.8% to 27.3% in men. Alcohol consumption is also expected to rise, with 52.5 units of alcohol per week estimated for men on average and 35 for women.
In addition to cases of cirrhosis, liver cancer and chronic liver disease, an increase in obesity and alcohol consumption would also cause 425,000 new cases of coronary heart disease and 550,000 strokes within nine years, estimate the researchers.
Reduce these risk factors through public policies
A more optimistic scenario, based on downward estimates, is however possible. The authors of the study thus estimate that a reduction of 1% per year in the body mass index (BMI) of the French and of 5% in their alcohol consumption by 2030 would make it possible to avoid 16,000 cases. of cirrhosis, 9,000 cases of liver cancer and 13,000 cases of other chronic liver diseases. “Public policies aimed at reducing these risk factors in the French population could attenuate the foreseeable increase in alcohol- and body-mass index-related non-communicable diseases”insist the authors.
According to the latest figures from Inserm, obesity affects 17% of adults in France and, among children, 16% of boys and 18% of girls: figures that have been more or less stable for ten years. As for alcohol consumption in France, it was estimated by the OECD in 2019 at 11.7 liters of alcohol per year and per capita, or 30% more than in other member countries.
.
