According to models from the Pasteur Institute, the later the reduction in anti-coronavirus measures takes place, the weaker the epidemic recovery will be.
- The health pass remains in place until at least November 15.
- Pasteur’s models predict a strong epidemic rebound in the middle of winter if the measures are removed too hastily.
- By delaying the lifting of the measures, the reproduction rate could reach a peak of 2.8 in January 2022, compared to 4.7 if these are suddenly withdrawn.
This Thursday, following a new Scientific Council, the government spokesperson, Gabriel Attal, indicated that the health pass will be renewed until November 15, at least. An announcement which is based, in part, on the modeling carried out regularly by the Pasteur Institute according to the epidemic and vaccine reality and which anticipates different scenarios to assess their future impact on the evolution of the virus. The latest to date suggest that delaying the easing of restrictive measures makes it possible to limit the circulation of the virus.
Avoid an epidemic resumption
Gabriel Attal justified the government’s decision to postpone the end of the use of the health pass after November 15 by the will “of an exit under secure conditions”. The objective is to “consolidate the observed decline in incidence in the coming weeks” and of “check the absence of effect of the return to school, university, and professional”. For this, he does not intend to rush and wants to maintain the use of the QR code before gradually withdrawing it but maintaining it in the places considered to be the most at risk, “such as bars, concerts, clubs, indoor restaurants or gyms”, lists the Scientific Council in its opinion.
This strategy is based on the latest Pasteur models whose object is to avoid a new epidemic wave like France experienced at the beginning of the summer. Between June 25 and July 16, the incidence rate rose from 53 to 548 per 100,000 inhabitants per week among 20-29 year olds when health measures were eased. According to the Pasteur Institute, “the combination of loosening measures/behaviors and cooling temperatures could (…) lead to a resumption of the epidemic, with a peak of 1,200 hospital admissions per day in February 2022warn the researchers. More than 100,000 people could be hospitalized with COVID-19 between October 1, 2021 and April 1, 2022” and the reproduction rate would reach 4.7, they estimate.
Patience
To get through the winter as well as possible by avoiding an epidemic outbreak, researchers at the Institut Pasteur advise rather to wait before getting rid of the health pass. “If current control measures and behaviors are maintained, the reproductive rate is expected to gradually increase as temperatures cool to peak at 2.8 in January 2022”, specify the models.
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