Fewer infections, but more deadly
The outbreak of the British variant of the corona virus is much less severe than feared in January. On the other hand, this variant of the coronavirus turns out to be more deadly than the well-known variant. What about?
We knew that the ‘British’ variant of the coronavirus is spreading faster. The British variant of the coronavirus is 35 to 45 percent more contagious and has spread in 82 countries, including the Netherlands. The share is here now about two thirds. According to a document that was used at the Catshuis consultation, which the Algemeen Dagblad put its fingers on, 170,000 new infections would be added every day at the beginning of February. A number the size of the population of a city like Nijmegen. The care would be totally disrupted. Fortunately, that did not happen, the number of infections has actually decreased. De Volkskrant has an analysis today about how such a miscalculation could take place. The cause turned out to be a chart with a number of errors, which had taken on a life of its own.
Still deadlier
Is the impact of the British variant heavily exaggerated? Not quite, because a few days ago we showed new data from the UK government see that this virus variant is still more deadly than the previously circulating virus, even though it was initially thought not. Around January 21, it was already known that people are becoming more seriously ill from this corona variant. That raised questions. Is that really so? Several universities and health organizations are now publishing new death rates of corona patients in this government document. The figures from the different sources cannot be lumped together, but the general conclusion of the list is that the risk of dying from the ‘British’ variant (technical name b.1.1.7) is greater than from the old acquaintance variant.
Numbers
The mortality from the new variant was 30-70% higher. That seems like a lot, but if you look at the absolute numbers, it is not that bad, the document warns. De Volkskrant calculated that concretely this means that someone aged 70-85 who first ran a 5 percent risk of dying, now runs a 7 to 8 percent risk with the new variant. Certainly because the number of new infections has not risen as high as expected, the impact is not too bad.
Another new variant
While everyone is trying to collect the right figures about the impact of the British variant, another new mutation has surfaced. This new worrisome variant has the technical name E484K mutation. The Algemeen Dagblad writes that this mutation occurs in the British and South African variant. The immune system built up after vaccination or previous infection may be less good in this type. Unfortunately, this type has now also appeared in the Netherlands, this is how the RIVM announced. Read more about the changes here at the RIVM. There you can also read how we can best deal with this: ‘For all variants of the coronavirus, stick to the measures. Have yourself tested as soon as possible in the event of (mild) complaints and strictly follow isolation and quarantine measures.’
