February 27, 2007 – The global warming that the planet is currently experiencing could increase the number of deaths recorded in Quebec during the summer season. Researchers from the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) predict an increase of around 3% to 9% in 2050, and from 6% to 24% in 20801. According to their calculations, by 2020, Quebec should have 100 to 150 additional deaths attributable to the intense heat.
Are these words not a little alarmist? The Dr Pierre Gosselin, medical consultant at the INSPQ and member of the team responsible for this study, considers that these forecasts are on the contrary rather “conservative”. He specifies that the evaluation does not take into account the expected aging of the population while those over 65 are particularly sensitive to heat.
He also stressed that his team did not take into account deaths caused by “storms, floods or new infectious diseases that would occur” due to global warming. In fact, the researchers had to revise their estimates upwards during the study because of the proven acceleration of the warming phenomenon. The pessimistic scenarios that they initially considered became the optimistic estimates that were ultimately adopted.
The goal of INSPQ researchers is not to create a state of panic among the population. It is rather a question of ensuring that the health and administrative authorities will take the necessary measures to avoid disasters similar to the one experienced in France a few years ago during an exceptional summer heatwave.
“We are 30 years old,” says Dr.r Pierre Gosselin, to adapt, to ensure better insulation of houses against heat, to equip themselves with better air conditioning, to green our cities in order to fight against the urban block effect, to build swimming pools for people who will not be able to afford these improvements, for example if they are tenants and cannot act on the thermal envelope of their dwelling. “
In Quebec, the authorities take the matter seriously. The public health services make the municipal authorities aware of the measures to be adopted in the event of a summer heatwave in order to limit the damage: prolonged opening of public swimming pools, access to air-conditioned premises, distribution of drinking water, etc. Health Canada offers several health and climate change interventions to ensure the well-being of the population2.
Pierre Lefrançois – PasseportSanté.net
According to The duty.
1. Doyon B, Bélanger D, Gosselin P. Effects of climate on mortality in southern Quebec from 1981 to 1999 and simulations for future climate scenarios. INSPQ. Canada, 2006. Full text: www.ouranos.ca
2. The Health Canada site provides a good summary of the foreseeable impacts on public health and the measures that should be adopted according to climate change: www.hc-sc.gc.ca [Consulté le 25 février 2007].
