November 25, 2009 – Two degrees Celsius. This is the limit of global warming not to be exceeded, according to scientists, to avoid the worst damage of climate change. If the mercury rises further, the loss of agricultural productivity in arid regions will increase famines. Heat waves and floods will multiply the number of their victims. Parasitic diseases, such as dengue or malaria, will spread to new territories and water shortages will affect hundreds of millions of people.
For some, the climate summit which will take place from December 7 to 18, in Copenhagen, promises to be one of the last chance. Because the Kyoto protocol expires in 2012. We must hurry to find a continuation.
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Health effects |
For 11 days, delegates from 192 countries will meet in the Danish capital to discuss the modalities of a new protocol. It will be the 15e major international UN conference on climate change. The first was held in Berlin in 1995. The Kyoto one took place in 1997. The countries then made a collective commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2%, below the level of. 1990, by 2012. Thirteen years later, the failure is bitter. GHG emissions are now at record levels. They have jumped 41% since 1990.
From the Bali conference in 2007, it was clear that Copenhagen would be the decisive opportunity to sign a new protocol. Discussions have since started; draft protocols discussed. Despite these efforts, everything indicates that it will take a miracle for a binding protocol to be signed in Denmark.
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Building a greener world
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Environmental activist and co-founder of the organization Équiterre, Laure Waridel believes that it is urgent to act, individually and collectively, to save the planet. For her, the slightest action in favor of the environment is important. See the interview she gave to Passeportsanté.net, in which she explains how it is possible to build a greener world.Leaders and dunces
Limiting warming to 2 ° Celsius is no easy task. Industrialized countries will have to commit to cutting their GHG emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to the 1990 level. To avoid postponing reduction efforts in Greece, an intermediate target of 25% to 40% d ‘by 2020 should be fixed now.
In anticipation of the Copenhagen summit, the European Union has already announced that it will commit to reducing its own emissions by 20% by 2020, or even 30% if an international agreement is reached. Quebec has followed suit, with a target of 20%, which may be revised upwards depending on the commitments of its main economic partners.
They will need to demonstrate exceptional power of persuasion to rally the other industrialized countries to their position. Because next to the good students are the dunces.
At 1er rank, Canada, whose emissions have never stopped increasing since 1990. Ottawa intends to limit itself to a reduction of 3%. Saudi Arabia, for its part, is not shy about saying publicly that it wants the Copenhagen negotiations to fail.
Between the leading platoons and the back row, we find countries like Australia, ready to commit to a 25% reduction if everyone agrees, but only 5% if no international agreement is reached. ‘is concluded. In the United States, the Obama administration hopes to get the Senate to adopt a reduction target of 20%… compared to the 2005 level. It will have to work hard to obtain the agreement of the senators before the beginning of December.
The weight of emerging countries
While the industrialized countries are debating to see how far they intend to go, the emerging countries are refining their position, which they intend to defend tooth and nail in Copenhagen. The members of the G77 – a grouping of developing countries led by China and India – formally refuse to be imposed on them binding greenhouse gas reduction targets. After all, they say to themselves, rich countries have developed by burning fossil fuels. Why should the countries of the South deprive themselves of doing the same?
China, it should be emphasized, is carrying out ambitious actions on its territory to reduce its emissions. However, it refuses to be imposed a target by the international community.
The G77 countries will advocate for increased financial aid from industrialized countries to the poorest states, to help them adapt to climate change.
The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes the Maldives, Grenada and part of the Bahamas, will advocate squarely for the survival of its member countries. Rising sea levels could wipe them off the map. These countries are asking the countries responsible for the warming to pay them billions of dollars in damages.
According to the calculations of the European Union, it would be necessary to pay $ 100 billion per year to developing countries. But no state has yet put money on the table.
In all likelihood, the Copenhagen summit will only be a “step”. States are already talking about extending negotiations in the months following the conference, even for a year. The December negotiations would therefore end with a major international declaration marking the urgency of action. No Copenhagen Protocol. But a miracle is always possible …
Dominique Forget – PasseportSanté.net
1. For more information: Air pollution: effects on health.
