If the frequency of influenza has been decreasing for 8 weeks, the epidemic persists in certain regions of France such as Hauts-de-France, Corsica and the Grand Est where the inhabitants are still very exposed.
The flu epidemic is receding, but not going away. Currently, the epidemic remains in the Antilles and Guyana. The frequency of influenza also remains high, especially in Hauts-de-France (392 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), Corsica (365 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and Grand-Est (345 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). According to the prediction model based on historical data and drug dispensations, the incidence of influenza is expected to continue to decline in the coming weeks.
A marked decline recorded in the rest of France
In the last epidemiological bulletin of the Sentinelles network dated February 28, 2018, which concerns the monitoring of the epidemic during the last week of February, the frequency of influenza syndromes seen in general medicine consultation has nevertheless fallen to 192 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, or 126,000 new cases . The Sentinels network has observed a very slow decrease in the epidemic in mainland France over the last 8 weeks. During the 11 weeks of the flu epidemic, 2,010,000 people reportedly consulted a general practitioner for this reason.
Fewer deaths in 2017 than in 2016
Since the start of the flu epidemic, the number of deaths attributable to influenza (excess mortality) has been estimated at 6,000 by Public Health France. A slight increase compared to the previous week, but down compared to last year when it was estimated at 14,400. The excess of all-cause mortality is estimated at 7,800 deaths during the period of the year. epidemic (+ 9%), because in this case the figure takes into account the excess mortality linked to the many illnesses associated with influenza in those affected (this figure was 21,200 in 2015-2016).
The number of hospitalizations increased slightly to 14% of emergency room visits with a total of 1,873 severe cases of influenza since November 1, 2017. The number of cases admitted each week to intensive care is decreasing.
The share of type B viruses continues to grow
This 2017-2018 epidemic is still characterized by a clear predominance of the type A virus with 61% of cases (51% of A (H1N1) and 7% of A (H3N2), but the share of B viruses continues to grow and is increased to 39%, the reverse in Europe.
The effectiveness of the vaccine
The preliminary results of the estimate of vaccine effectiveness in people over 65 years indicate an overall effectiveness of 60%: it would be 78% against the A (H1N1) viruses and 61% against the B viruses, according to the Sentinels networks.
Preliminary data from the FLUVAC study on the estimation of vaccine efficacy in preventing adult hospitalizations indicate the figure of 44%, regardless of the virus, or nearly one in 2 avoided hospitalizations.
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