In the short term, the figures on the number of daily infections raise fears of a postponement of the easing of the confinement scheduled for December 15. In the long term, the arrival of vaccines makes us more optimistic.
- This Sunday, France recorded 11,022 new cases of contamination.
- Beyond December 15, the stores that are filling up again, the end-of-year holiday gatherings and a possible relaxation of barrier gestures form a cocktail that raises fears of a third wave.
Next December 15 is scheduled to be the date of a first reduction in containment measures with, in particular, the end of certificates and free movement on the territory. To validate this step, Emmanuel Macron set two conditions: to have less than 5,000 new daily cases of Covid-19 and less than 3,000 people in intensive care. If the second parameter seems on track to be achieved, the first seems more difficult to achieve.
The relief of the conditions worries
Will the date of December 15 be moved? Impossible for the moment to know but the current trend does not lead to optimism. During his televised address on November 24, Emmanuel Macron was clear: for containment to be eased, the number of new daily cases recorded must be less than 5,000. This Sunday, France recorded 11,022 new cases of contamination, according to Public Health France. “We have objectives for December 15, for the deconfinement. We are a little worriedconceded Karine Lacombe, infectiologist and head of the infectious diseases department at Saint-Antoine hospital in Paris, on BFM-TV this Sunday. The objective of the number of contaminations below 5,000, it will be complicated or even impossible, since we even see that we have a slight increase which has been confirmed in recent days.” The other objective, that of having less than 3,000 people in intensive care, seems to him to be on the right track since there are currently 3,210 patients, a figure which is constantly falling.
The reasons for this slight increase in the number of cases remain unclear. “This may be due to slacking off, returning too early to work or with friends… It’s too early to tell.”, estimates Simon Cauchemez, head of the emergency department of the Georges-Pompidou hospital in Paris, at the Parisian. Whatever the causes, the prospect of an easing of confinement conditions in the current situation is worrying. “If the virus circulates too much, the tracing of all the contaminations will not be doneworried Agnès Ricard-Hibon, director of Samu in Val-d’Oise, on BFM-TV. The same causes produce the same effects. If there is a release too quickly, there is no reason that there is not a re-ascent.”
The beginning of the end of the pandemic
Beyond December 15, the stores that are filling up again, the end-of-year holiday gatherings and a possible relaxation of barrier gestures form a cocktail that raises fears of a third wave. “It can happen at any time, as soon as we relax too muchimmediately warns Simon Cauchemez, whose calculations guide the government’s choices. The level of immunity in the population is not sufficient to protect us, adds the specialist. Since a third wave is possible, everything must be done to counter it.” The American example is there to confirm it to us: the Thanksgiving holiday plunged the country into an outbreak of new cases with a record number of 230,000 new contaminations recorded on Saturday December 5. “It is the gatherings of family and friends for the holidays that are the most delicate, because there will undoubtedly be a reduction in respect for barrier gestures.warns Agathe Raynaud-Simon, head of the geriatrics department at Bichat hospital in Paris, interviewed by the Parisian. But it’s way too early to let your guard down.”
Beyond the next few weeks, or even the next few months, the horizon seems to be clearing up. The upcoming arrival of the vaccine gives hope for a return to life “much more normal”, according to infectiologist Karine Lecombe. “The vaccines are coming, and by this summer, the epidemic will be contained”, she even ventures to move forward. She predicts that by next September, life should regain a taste of before. An optimism shared by Moncef Slaoui, scientific adviser to Donald Trump and one of the coordinators of Operation Warp Speed which will allow the distribution in the United States of vaccines developed by the Pfizer and Moderna laboratories. “The discovery of the vaccine is the beginning of the end of the pandemic”, he estimated on France 24.
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