The Covid-19 epidemic could improve in the coming weeks according to projections by the Institut Pasteur.
- The figures for the Covid-19 epidemic are increasingly positive.
- Currently, more than 53 million people are fully vaccinated in France.
The incidence rate, hospitalizations, admissions to critical care… All these Covid-19 indicators are on the decline and, according to the latest projections published by the Institut Pasteur, this improvement could last. “It should be clear that the production of such projections is a particularly difficult and uncertain exercise, nuance the Institute in its press release. They should therefore always be considered with caution.”.
500 hospital admissions for Covid by February 27
In detail, the Institut Pasteur anticipates a drop in hospital admissions in the coming days in metropolitan areas. They were to increase to 500 by February 27. Currently, 1,764 new people are hospitalized for Covid-19 per day in France, according to the latest information published by the government. Nevertheless, this figure is down more than 22% over the last seven days. Overseas, however, researchers consider their projections too uncertain to be able to publish them.
70 critical care admissions per day at the end of the month
In France, 211 people are admitted to critical care every day…. A figure down by more than 18% over the last seven days. Indeed, on February 4, it stood at 310 new entries into critical care due to Covid-19. But, since that date, they have decreased: 281 on February 10, 246 on February 13, 227 on February 16… According to the Pasteur Institute, daily admissions to critical care could stand at 70 per day at the end of the month.
Crucial indicators for the evolution of the epidemic
These hospital indicators are very important. “In mid-March, if the hospitals are in normal operating condition, and if the circulation of the virus is very low, we will be able to remove the masks for adults and children, for all or part of the closed places, including without a pass. (…), estimated Olivier Véran, the Minister of Health at the microphone of France Info on February 16. We could also start to lighten the vaccination pass earlier, but keep it in places that are very at risk”.
Decrease in the main indicators of the epidemic
Regarding the other data of the epidemic – which are not studied in the projections of the Institut Pasteur – there is also some improvement. First of all, the incidence rate is currently 1104.52 but with a drop of 43.90% over the last seven days. On January 24, there were 3,809.83 new cases of people who tested positive for Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants. But since this peak, the numbers have been gradually decreasing: 3298.83 on December 31, 2507.57 on February 5, 1630.27 on February 10.
Finally, the effective reproduction rate is 0.59, a decrease of 23% over the last week. This is the average number of people an infected individual can infect. If this rate is greater than 1, the epidemic is growing; if it is less than 1, the epidemic is regressing. It fell below 1 on January 29, and has continued to decline since then.
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