According to new projections from Inserm, an epidemic rebound is coming, whatever the scenarios considered.
- Even if the Covid-19 epidemic is stagnating in France, Inserm predicts an imminent upsurge in hospitalizations.
- The scenarios envisage maintaining the existing measures, tightening them or reducing them
- In any case, the epidemic could experience a new peak in March
Moselle, Dunkirk… Despite a proliferation of new outbreaks of South African and British variants, the Covid-19 epidemic has been declining slightly in recent days. A consequence of the strengthening of social distancing measures gradually implemented in January 2021, according to a new Inserm study, published on Sunday February 14.
“Historical Strain Rollback”
“Using a mathematical model, we estimated that these measures led to the stabilization of hospitalizations, resulting from a balance between the decline of the historical strain (the one in circulation before the arrival of the variant; estimated effective reproduction rate < 1) and the rapid growth of the British variant", analyze the researchers.
The rest of the study is less positive. “The British variant is expected to become the majority in late February-early March in France, with great geographical heterogeneity (mid-February in Île-de-France)”, continue the scientists. They add : “in the absence of strengthened control measures, a rapid increase in cases is expected in the coming weeks.”
Three scenarios
The researchers imagined three scenarios, illustrated by the graphs visible at the top of this article. The first case calculates the number of hospitalizations to come with even stricter government measures, the second the number of hospitalizations to come with the same restrictions as today, and the third the number of hospitalizations to come if the government relaxes the rules in force. In all three cases, the coronavirus epidemic is on the rise again.
In its daily assessment of the coronavirus epidemic in France, Public Health France reported this Monday, February 15, 4,376 new cases, a rather stable figure compared to last week. Since the start of the vaccination campaign in France, 2,294,208 first vaccine injections (i.e. 3.5% of the total population and 4.3% of the adult population) and 720,249 second injections have been carried out, according to the DGS .
The three scenarios for the evolution of the number of hospitalizations due to Covid-19, calculated by Inserm.
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