The study of Internet users’ searches on the web would make it possible to predict the appearance of future clusters.
- The researchers noted a match between internet searches for terms like “ageusia” (loss of taste) and “loss of appetite”, and an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the following three to four weeks.
- In 2009, Google employees were able to estimate the incidence of influenza week by week in each region of the United States by simply monitoring Internet searches for symptoms related to this pathology.
- These data underscore the importance of gastrointestinal symptoms as a potential early warning sign of Covid-19 infection.
Looking for the answer to a question on the internet has become a reflex for many. So much so that the study of this research could make it possible to predict future areas of dissemination of the coronavirus. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by American researchers from the Department of Medicine at Boston General Hospital, the results of which were published on July 3 in the journal Clinical Gastroenterology.
A technique already effective for the flu
At the time of the appearance of Covid-19 in the United States, online searches for gastrointestinal symptoms increased significantly and were correlated with an increase in the number of positive cases for the virus. The researchers studied searches on the Google site by residents of 15 states between January 20 and April 20. The researchers noted a match between Internet searches for terms like “ageusia” (loss of taste) and “loss of appetite”, and an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the following three to four weeks.
For this study, the researchers took as an example a preliminary research carried out in 2009 by employees of the American firm. The latter managed to estimate the incidence of the flu week by week in each region of the United States by simply monitoring internet searches on the symptoms associated with this pathology. For the coronavirus, the delay between internet searches and the multiplication of cases is greater than with the flu. It could be explained by “differences in testing availability, case reporting, or incubation time for the two viruses”, advance the researchers.
A valuable tool
The researchers, however, want to qualify their finding, explaining that the study of online searches cannot predict everything “While our work shows a correlation between Internet queries and the incidence of the disease, it is important to remember that the relative nature of the data reflecting the popularity of Google Trends queries does not make it possible to precisely identify thresholds from which the increase in searches would be significant”, they wrote.
Although they are imperfect, the study of these online searches makes it possible to give trends on the evolution of the pandemic. “Just because this data isn’t perfect doesn’t mean it’s useless”, confirms Stephen Mooney, assistant professor at the University of Washington, to Quartz. “Our data underscores the importance of gastrointestinal symptoms as a potential early warning sign of Covid-19 infection and suggests that Google Trends may be a valuable tool for the prediction of pandemics with gastrointestinal manifestations.”, supports Kyle Staller, gastroenterologist and author of the study.
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