American researchers estimate after modeling the Covid-19, that it will be necessary to alternate several periods of social distancing until 2022 to overcome the virus.
- Harvard researchers modeled the resistance over time of SARS-CoV-2
- They estimate that, without a vaccine, several periods of social distancing will have to be planned until 2022.
Researchers at Harvard University (United States) estimate that in the absence of treatment, it will take several periods of social distancing until 2022 to overcome Covid-19. Assuming that this virus could become seasonal, as some cause seasonal viral infections, they modeled Covid-19 to study its resistance over time.
“Alternatively, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could resemble that of the Spanish flu by circulating seasonally after causing a first global wave of infection”indicate the researchers who publish their results in the journal Science.
Alternate confinement and deconfinement
“During this first epidemic wave, many countries adopted social distancing measures and some, such as China, are gradually lifting them after achieving adequate control of transmission.they observe. However, to mitigate the possibility of resurgences of infection, prolonged or intermittent periods of social distancing may be required..”
Researchers believe that in the absence of a vaccine, the best way to fight the virus is to alternate between confinement and deconfinement of young and healthy people. Containment would prevent healthcare personnel from being overwhelmed and deconfinement would allow the virus to circulate, infect the less fragile and gradually immunize the population. By confining people for several months, countries would prevent the building of this herd immunity and make their population vulnerable.
Herd immunity
However, certain limits must be taken into account: researchers do not yet know the level and duration of an infected person’s immunity. In China, patients discharged from hospital have again shown symptoms of the disease. Likewise, researchers are still uncertain how long the virus can remain on surfaces. If the opinions of scientists diverge, all are unanimous in saying that the virus will not disappear in the coming months and that the risk will remain for a long time.
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