A study by the National Academy of Medicine concludes that a temperature increase of one degree is associated with a 3.1% decrease in new cases of Covid-19 infection and 1.2% in deaths related to the virus.
- The diffusion index in Europe is 2.67 with an average temperature of 11.2°C against 0.03 in sub-Saharan Africa where the average temperature is 34.8°C.
- These figures support the hypothesis of a seasonal influence of the climate on the epidemiology of Covid-19 in temperate countries.
Will the heat be right about the coronavirus? The hypothesis was put forward by several experts, confirmed by a Chinese study, published on April 3 on the site Arxiv.org, which concludes that the virus would be sensitive enough to humidity and heat for its contagion to be slowed down when summer arrives in the northern hemisphere. A new study, conducted by the National Academy of Medicine, may well provide the answer and confirm the effect of heat on the virus.
A much higher diffusion index in Europe than in sub-Saharan Africa
The survey succeeded in quantifying the effect of rising temperature on the coronavirus. According to her, a one degree rise in temperature is associated with a 3.1% decrease in new infections and a 1.2% decrease in deaths. To arrive at these figures, the National Academy of Medicine compared data from the intertropical zones with those from European countries. For this, it relied on a network of 19 doctors, pharmacists and health executives working in the temperate zone (France and Italy), in the intertropical African zone (Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Togo, Gabon ) and in the DOM/TOM (Guadeloupe, Martinique, La Réunion, Mayotte, St Martin, St Barthélémy, New Caledonia).
Thanks to these data, the researchers were able to establish the indices of diffusion according to the average temperatures. In Europe, this index is 2.67 for an average temperature of 11.2°C. In sub-Saharan Africa, where temperatures approach 35°C, the diffusion index is only 0.03. These figures confirm the effect of heat on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and “support the hypothesis of a seasonal influence of climate on the epidemiology of Covid-19 in temperate countries”, specifies the National Academy of Medicine in a press release.
In detail, each correspondent had to provide a series of detailed information. Among them they indicated “confirmed cases according to the definition of Public Health France, imported cases, indigenous cases allowing the dissemination index to be established, the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths, specifies the press release. Average weekly temperatures, expressed in degrees Celsius, were recorded, as well as population densities, the group arrival of sick travellers, the possible use of chloroquine and compliance with containment measures..”
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