Researchers from the Institut Pasteur have made projections concerning the coronavirus epidemic in France. They looked at the epidemiology of Sars-Cov-2 in the event that the French population remains only partially vaccinated. How would the health situation evolve between now and the fall of 2021?
A possible peak in hospitalization this fall
If scientists have carried out this work, it is to anticipate a possible fourth wave of the epidemic and provide upstream solutions to avoid it. In their modeling, they used a reference scenario, exempt from all the measures to control the epidemic. The Institut Pasteur team based itself on a reproduction rate equivalent to 4 (R0 = 4), vaccination coverage of 90% for those over 60, 70% for those aged 18-59 and 30% among 12-17 year olds. In this case, the researchers find that a “ peak hospitalizations similar to the peak in autumn 2020 could be observed “. They conclude that a ” some level of epidemic control may therefore be needed this fall “, Thanks to barrier measures for example or screening for Covid-19.
The unvaccinated participate in the transmission of the virus
What can pose a problem in this baseline scenario is that the “ unvaccinated people over 60 years old represent 3% of the population but 35% of hospitalizations “. In addition, the Institut Pasteur states that individuals who are not immune to Covid-19 are 12 times more likely to transmit the coronavirus, thus contributing to its “ disproportionately transmitted “. In addition, too few young people, especially children and adolescents, are vaccinated, while they represent about half of transmissions, according to the Foundation.
What solutions to control the epidemic by the fall?
Obviously, vaccination comes at the top of the most relevant solutions: “ vaccination of the unvaccinated is the most effective approach to control the epidemic “. It also appears essential that the most vulnerable people also have recourse to the vaccine. The Foundation proposes to redouble its attention to children. Indeed, with the start of the school year and if there is indeed an epidemic rebound, control measures as well as more stringent health protocols could be put in place in schools. For them, “ Vaccination of children and adolescents should allow them to return to a normal life “. Finally, the Institut Pasteur addresses the return to compliance with barrier measures, but only for non-vaccinated people. However, “ This raises (…) important social and ethical issues that need to be discussed “.
