Strong enough to injure passengers and crew on planes, turbulence could become more frequent due to climate change.
It’s taking off, fasten your seatbelts! Climate change could increase atmospheric turbulence in airplanes, according to a new study from the University of Reading (England) published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
In this work, the scientists examined several degrees of turbulence, in order to study how they will change the daily lives of passengers. This simulation work concerned the area over the North Atlantic where some 600 airliners fly every day between Europe and North America. The results show that the average of so-called “light” turbulence will increase by 59%, while the strongest turbulence will increase by 149%.
More CO2 in the air in 2050
The reason for the explosion of the turbulence is thought to be due to the increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Scheduled for 2050, this will increase the temperature difference between the air bands when planes are at cruising altitude. A phenomenon which, moreover, would occur in a space where jet streams are very present. These are often qualified as powerful atmospheric “engines” where a disorderly agitation of the air sits: in other words the famous air holes!
Dr Paul Williams, who conducted the research, comments: “For most passengers, mild turbulence is nothing more than an annoying inconvenience that lowers their comfort levels, but for more nervous jerks it can. -be very painful ”. Or even worse …
Like a downpour in the river
This researcher even indulges in a very colorful analogy: “when the water flows slowly in a river, there is not much turbulence, but when the flow increases after heavy rains, the agitation of the water. becomes stronger ”. And this is obviously what climate change has in store for us, flights like in a boat sailing in the middle of a rough sea.
As a reminder, thousands of people are caught each year in turbulence causing a rapid rise or fall of their aircraft, without warning of course. Although most cases are minor, there are hundreds of serious injuries and dozens of deaths each year, mostly in small planes.
The story of a very turbulent flight
At least a dozen people were injured in August 2016 on a United Airlines plane from Houston, Texas. The craft was heading towards London Heathrow International Airport when it was struck by turbulence and twice lowered in altitude.
A passenger said those who were not wearing seat belts were propelled towards the ceiling, causing head injuries. An experienced pilot describes a scene with people screaming like in a roller coaster ride.
The plane was forced to head to Shannon Airport in Ireland, where 9 adults and 3 children were hospitalized. The study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences However, it is reassuring by indicating that increased turbulence will not lead to more injuries if the companies take the appropriate measures.
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