Created in 2007, the ecological bonus-malus system aimed to subsidize the cleanest models, while discouraging the purchase of those which emit the most CO2. But as the scale got tougher, malussées cars ended up making up a fairly large share of sales.
Since its creation in 2007, under the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy, the ecological bonus-malus has continued to harden. Gasoline, diesel, LPG and even non-plug-in hybrids have not been eligible for assistance for a long time. Only electric, hydrogen or hybrid models capable of recharging from the mains are still subsidized. With amounts that have decreased since 1er last July and will continue to do so on the 1er next january. On the other hand, the 2022 penalty could climb up to € 40,000! We are far from the maximum € 2,600 which was reached in 2008, when the device has entered into force.
More and more models affected
But it is also the number of affected models that has increased significantly over time, thanks to regularly lowered trigger thresholds. Here, the comparison is more complicated. Since 2020, a more realistic fuel consumption approval cycle, called WLTP, has been used. CO emissions2 of most cars thus automatically increased, and a correspondingly revised penalty grid had been used from 1er March. The minimum was then reduced from 110 to 138 g / km to avoid penalizing buyers and car manufacturers too much.
But this was still much lower than the 161 g / km from which the 2008 malus started., according to a less demanding NEDC cycle. Despite the technological advancements made since then, which have helped to reduce the level of CO2 average of nearly 30 g / km, the number of models affected by this tax is therefore greater today than 13 years ago. To the point that simple gasoline city cars can sometimes suffer … while diesel, however accused of all the evils by a part of the political class, very often continues to escape it.
Up to 35% sales of malussed models
In turn, the share of new malussed cars in registrations has also increased. With a real boost in 2018. While we have hitherto oscillated between 9 and 18%, we have suddenly gone to 29%! The peak was reached in 2019, when these models represented 35% of sales. In 2020, we have come down to a more reasonable 22%, but in a three-fold particular context, between the health crisis, the double scale generated by the WLTP cycle and the entry into force of European CO standards.2 more restrictive for manufacturers. Since the beginning of 2021, the trend seems to be rather around 30%.
The bonus has been rediscovering since 2020
As for vehicles receiving a bonus, if they climbed to 56% in 2009, they fell between 1 and 3% between 2015 and 2019, when the state decided to be much less generous. It took until 2020 to see them go up the slope, up to 7%, thanks to the increase in electric car registrations and the return of assistance for plug-in hybrids. In 2021, “bonus” vehicles even seem set to do even better, since they remain above the 10% mark since the start of the year and reached 17.1% in August. The neutral tranche was thus sharply reduced.
However, in 2022, the share of models with bonuses is expected to decrease again, since only 100% electric or hydrogen models will still be able to benefit from it. While the trigger threshold, again lowered by 5 g / km, may further increase the share of malussed models. All this even without taking into account the new tax on the weight of cars.
