A new study by the DREES estimates that 108,000 new places will be needed in nursing homes over the next ten years.
- In 2030, 21 million seniors aged 60 or over will live in France, i.e. 3 million more than in 2019.
- Today, the main causes of addiction can be classified into three categories of pathologies.
Ehpads could have 108,000 more residents by 2030, according to a new study by the DREES (department of research, studies, evaluation and statistics) .
Three main types of pathologies in nursing homes
“Today, the main causes of addiction can be classified into three categories of pathologies”, explains geriatrician Paul-Emile Haÿ, medical director France Seniors at Korian:
“- Neurodegenerative diseases leading to cognitive dependence, such as Alzheimer’s disease, but also more rarely Huntington’s disease, Charcot’s disease, vascular dementia or dementia with Lewy bodies (LCD).
– Pathologies that trigger physical dependence, such as a hip fracture, cardiovascular or pulmonary diseases such as COPD, kidney failure or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson’s disease is a mixed case, as it triggers first a physical dependency, then a mental one.
– Cancers in the elderly, which can be supported at the end of their life in nursing homes.”
In 2030, 21 million seniors aged 60 or over will live in France, i.e. 3 million more than in 2019. According to the DREES’ Living Spaces and Autonomy (LIVIA) projection model, maintaining current entry practices in institutions for the elderly with loss of autonomy would require doubling over time the rate of opening of places observed since 2012, in order to accommodate 108,000 additional residents in accommodation establishments for dependent elderly people (Ehpad) between 2019 and 2030, then another 211,000 between 2030 and 2050, which would be added to the 611,000 residents in the existing squares.
“Half of nursing home residents are at level 1 and 2 on the GIR score”
“However, promoting home care and limiting places in nursing homes, as supported by current policies, could lead to the transfer of some seniors to forms of intermediate housing between ordinary housing and nursing homes, such as residences. autonomy”, specify the INSEE analysts.
The number of people in independent residences, which currently stands at just over 100,000, should therefore be multiplied by 1.5 to 2.5 in 2030 compared to today, according to the scenarios for the evolution of the number of places in Ehpad retained. “Ehpads would then focus on welcoming the most dependent seniors, which is a trend that can already be observed today”, explains Paul-Emile Hay. “Currently, half of residents in nursing homes are at level 1 and 2 on the GIR score (iso-resource group corresponding to the level of loss of autonomy of an elderly person), that is to say that they have a very high cognitive or physical dependence”, continues the geriatrician. “Cognitive dependence will, in my opinion, still be the major problem between now and 2030, in particular because of Alzheimer’s disease, even if we find treatments today”, concludes this specialist in the elderly.
.