1.3 billion diabetics in the world in 2050!

Diabetes affects more and more people around the world. According to theWorld Health Organization (WHO), the number of cases almost quadrupled between 1980 and 2014. According to a large statistical study, published by the journal Tea Lancet, this figure is expected to increase further in the coming years. According to the projections of these scientists, 1.3 billion people could be affected in 2050.

What is diabetes ?

“Diabetes is a chronic disease that occurs when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin, or when the body is unable to use the insulin it produces effectively. explains the WHO. Insulin is a hormone that regulates blood sugar.“The disease affects both children and adults. It can take two forms: type 1 diabetes corresponds to an insufficient production of insulin by the body and type 2 diabetes is linked to its poor use. ci. If the former is unavoidable, the latter may be lifestyle related.”Having a healthy diet, regular physical activity, a normal weight and avoiding tobacco consumption are all ways to prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes.notes the WHO.

Both diseases can notably cause blindness or kidney failure. “The rapid rate at which diabetes is developing is not only alarming, but also a challenge for all healthcare systems worldwide, especially given that the disease also increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke. cerebrovascular”warns Dr. Liane Ong, lead author and scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

Diabetes: how to estimate its incidence in the years to come?

Today, diabetes affects approximately 500 million people worldwide with an incidence rate of 6.1%. “Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide and affects people regardless of country, age group or gender.”, say the authors of this new study. To make projections on the number of cases in thirty years, they used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) : This global research program aims to assess mortality and disability related to diseases and risk factors around the world. In this research, scientists compiled diabetes statistics for 2021 and projections for 2050 in 204 countries.

Diabetes: an unequal situation depending on the country

The study published in Tea Lancet shows that the highest rates were observed in the Middle East and North Africa. In these two regions of the world, the incidence rate should reach 16.8% in 2050, against 9.3% currently. “Diabetes was particularly common among people aged 65 and over, in all countries“, observe the researchers.

Furthermore, they find that 96% of cases worldwide are related to type 2 diabetes.”A high body mass index (BMI) was the main risk factor for type 2 diabetes”, they say. The others are environmental and occupational hazards, smoking, low physical activity and alcohol consumption. “But this approach fails to take into account the conditions in which people are born and live that create disparities in the worldunderlines Lauryn Stafford, co-author. These inequalities have an impact on people’s access to testing and treatment and on the availability of health services..” Now, theWorld Health Organization finds that the prevalence of the disease is increasing faster in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.