The amount of viral RNA in the blood is the most reliable indicator for assessing the risk of patients dying from Covid-19. Ultimately, using it systematically would allow doctors to better adapt care and treatment.
- A virus contains genetic information, in the form of DNA or RNA.
- For Covid-19, it is RNA, a nucleic acid that contains the genetic message and protein synthesis of the virus.
Ln January 4, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated on Twitter the existence of several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, People’s Republic of China. The authority specified that investigations were in progress to determine the cause… At that time, nobody knew SARS-CoV-2. But since then, in almost two years, the scientific world has learned a lot about this virus: development of vaccines, barrier gestures to adopt, improvement in the care of patients… And yet, despite these advances, doctors have always had to difficult to identify which patients are most at risk of dying from the disease.
Predicting the risk of dying of patients with Covid-19…
“In our study, we were able to determine which biomarkers predict mortality within 60 days of symptom onset”, explains Dr. Daniel Kaufmann, co-lead author of a study that has just been published in the journal Science Advances. A biomarker is a precisely measurable biological characteristic used as an indicator of a body function, disease, or drug action. “Using our data, we successfully developed and validated a statistical model based on a blood biomarker“, continues Dr Daniel Kaufmann. And this blood biomarker of SARS-CoV-2 is the viral RNA or the amount of genetic material of this virus in the blood. From this indicator, therefore, the scientists have developed a statistical model which makes it possible to identify patients infected with Covid-19 who are most at risk of dying.The objective is to allow doctors to identify them and offer them other treatments.
…thanks to the viral RNA present in the blood
To achieve this result, the research team analyzed blood samples from 279 patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19. Thus, they were able to measure different data – the amounts of inflammatory proteins, that of viral RNA as well as the levels of antibodies targeting the virus – and test them with their model to determine which is the most reliable for predicting the mortality of a patient. “Of all the biomarkers we assessed, we showed that the amount of viral RNA in the blood was directly associated with mortality and provided the best predictive analysis once our model was adjusted for patient age and sex.explains Elsa Brunet, another author of the study and doctoral student with Dr Daniel Kaufmann. We even found that including additional biomarkers did not improve predictive quality.”.
Offer alternative treatments to patients most at risk
To confirm the effectiveness of their model, the scientists tested it on patients from two different hospitals. Either way, their predictive model worked: they were able to predict patients’ risk of dying. Ultimately, the researchers hope that their model will allow doctors to better monitor patients, identifying patients most at risk to offer them new treatments.
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