Who will benefit from the gradual increase in the price of a pack of cigarettes announced yesterday by the Prime Minister in his general policy speech? For Edouard Philippe, there is no doubt that the 10 euro package will benefit public health and prevention. Isn’t tobacco “the leading cause of avoidable mortality which leads to 80,000 deaths per year”?
But for some observers, this announcement should above all benefit… the state coffers. “Edouard Philippe will relaunch the tobacco cash machine”, headlines the BFMTV site.
In a full year, the 10-euro package was to bring in 4.5 billion euros in tax revenue. “In theory, nuance the journalist, the drop in consumption caused by the price increase should reduce this tax surplus.
With one nuance. Most experts agree: to be effective and dissuasive, the price increase must be strong and repetitive. In other words, the “progressive” method, touted by the government, would have more positive effects on revenue than on consumption itself.
Moreover, in her mission letter, revealed at the beginning of the week, the Minister of Health wanted to increase “rapidly and strongly from 2018, the price of tobacco”.
As part of the cancer plan, recalls the article, Jacques Chirac had increased prices in 2003 by 11% and then by 25% the following year. Tobacco consumption per smoker had fallen from 4.6 to 3.9 cigarettes per day in two years. Ten years later, it is still 3.5 cigarettes. During this decade, the limited incremental increases did little to deter cigarette addicts.
